A few posts back, you compared large language models in an exercise that subverted our faith in the ability of language to represent reality or contain anything resembling intelligence. You followed that up with a discussion of memes as images or words as contagions of meaning that by definition were distortions of reality--or damned lies, as we refer to them locally.
Today's post brings up the ability of imagined riches to establish speculative economies which dwarf economies based on production of goods. Perhaps the first meme was the word gold with an exclamation point.
That Rome persisted long after it was economically viable shows the power of a speculative economy, and it looks as if the American Empire will persist far longer than its basis in the real world, for better or for worse. A substantial majority of humanity lives in a world of words, one where plenty is a function of keystrokes.
Language fails only when humans are forced to reckon with the mine that doesn't produce, the crop that fails, the enemy that destroys a power plant or refinery. For a moment, one is freed from the burden of naming everything one sees, but that isn't exactly a happy outcome.
My very first impression following Trump's pronouncement about wanting the "rare earth" was that it should not be taken at face value. Leaving aside the fact that Trump has a tendency to greatly exaggerate numbers when he talks, the amount he said the US was "owed" for its assistance was vastly in excess of what it has provided. So whether or not these minerals actually exist and are economically retrievable is beside the point. This leads to the obvious conclusion that he has another motive, and the only plausible one has to be US disengagement following the inevitable refusal. Ukraine no longer has much the US really wants now that it has essentially lost its utility as a battering ram against Russia.
The Roman war for Dacia's gold might also be an early demonstration of the EROEI principle. In addition to the mining effort, add in what was spent paying and arming the soldiers involved, and the return is almost certain to be negative. But the same might be true of modern wars for resources--even if the US could capture the rights to all of Ukraine's mineral wealth, does it seem like it would be a positive return on investment after tallying up not just mining and transportation costs, but the vast billions spent on the military resources necessary to take it? I wonder if anyone has ever done a study on that? Military resources never seem to be part of the math in any such analysis I have ever seen.
People prefer to dream, hope is quite an addiction in itself...
Funny thing, when Pandora opened the box containing all the evil of the world, HOPE was at the bottom! Hope is perfect to keep people from acting, analyzing or planning, just hope and all the boring work is not necessary, usually works too: in a complex system usually there are a lot of homeostatic interactions so usually don't act is quite a sound choice, overreacting could usually be more damaging (long to explain but in an oscillating system usually exacerbate the oscillations).
Pipe dreams could even work, Panama and Suez are an example, and if you put a lot of effort in it almost anything could be done just b trial and error approach. This work in a dynamic system, usually the "powerful" are used to get their power from manipulating social systems so in their view all is the same and react as a complex, dynamic system, work with finite resources and feedback loops that derive from it is outside the mindset needed to rule! A side note is that all this misjudgment really profit someone near the core of the empire, those who sell to the empire the commodity to actuate their failed plans, Roma had to buy to keep Dacia under his rule so NATO for Afghanistan: soldiers get food, weapons, shelter, entertainment, fresh troops and so on, these are usually sourced more from the core of the empire so at the core someone is gaining a lot, selling them!
To me, we are looking at a California Gold Rush on planetary scale, the results will be the same: a lot of people will gain a little and a lot will lose a lot, there will be some gold for some (little) time and a few will get rich fueling the rush selling to the losers, all keeping the hype and the hope with some good story of success... time tested with gamble approach.
Today's gold is called energy and fossil fuel depletion led to the "green" version, mostly solar and wind. Without some sort of buffering (cloudy day, no wind) that won't work well and one remedy is the use of Li-based batteries. Some thought there is much Li in the East of the Ukraine (1 reason to conquer it) but the country isn't even mentioned here:
A better buffer system is obtained with thermal solar, where concentrated solar energy heats molten salt which heats water to run the turbines generating electricity. With the reservoir of molten salt large enough, cloudy days aren't a problem.
H.L. Mencken is usually credited with the saying that nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American people. Trump has had a lifetime to refine this idea, but Republicans have practiced a variation of it for decades. Nixon's racist "Southern strategy" and Karl Rove before he became too tepid for MAGA are examples. The minerals issue, particularly rare earths, probably started out in Trump's mind alongside the acquisition or invasion of Greenland, but I think Ugo is right on the mark when he says Plan B is to use Ukraine's refusal to be extorted (make a "deal") as an excuse to withdraw aid. Hegseth has backpedaled through the shit just enough to deny that he was handing Ukrainean territory and sovereignty over to the Russians. The fact that Ukraine (or Greenland) may not have much in the way of rare earth deposits is like telling a child that the candy store is out of his favorite confection. Then we have the other side of the coin trying to sell the public on a painless and green energy transition. If we just had the will and the right policies...
Ugo--
A few posts back, you compared large language models in an exercise that subverted our faith in the ability of language to represent reality or contain anything resembling intelligence. You followed that up with a discussion of memes as images or words as contagions of meaning that by definition were distortions of reality--or damned lies, as we refer to them locally.
Today's post brings up the ability of imagined riches to establish speculative economies which dwarf economies based on production of goods. Perhaps the first meme was the word gold with an exclamation point.
That Rome persisted long after it was economically viable shows the power of a speculative economy, and it looks as if the American Empire will persist far longer than its basis in the real world, for better or for worse. A substantial majority of humanity lives in a world of words, one where plenty is a function of keystrokes.
Language fails only when humans are forced to reckon with the mine that doesn't produce, the crop that fails, the enemy that destroys a power plant or refinery. For a moment, one is freed from the burden of naming everything one sees, but that isn't exactly a happy outcome.
My very first impression following Trump's pronouncement about wanting the "rare earth" was that it should not be taken at face value. Leaving aside the fact that Trump has a tendency to greatly exaggerate numbers when he talks, the amount he said the US was "owed" for its assistance was vastly in excess of what it has provided. So whether or not these minerals actually exist and are economically retrievable is beside the point. This leads to the obvious conclusion that he has another motive, and the only plausible one has to be US disengagement following the inevitable refusal. Ukraine no longer has much the US really wants now that it has essentially lost its utility as a battering ram against Russia.
The Roman war for Dacia's gold might also be an early demonstration of the EROEI principle. In addition to the mining effort, add in what was spent paying and arming the soldiers involved, and the return is almost certain to be negative. But the same might be true of modern wars for resources--even if the US could capture the rights to all of Ukraine's mineral wealth, does it seem like it would be a positive return on investment after tallying up not just mining and transportation costs, but the vast billions spent on the military resources necessary to take it? I wonder if anyone has ever done a study on that? Military resources never seem to be part of the math in any such analysis I have ever seen.
People prefer to dream, hope is quite an addiction in itself...
Funny thing, when Pandora opened the box containing all the evil of the world, HOPE was at the bottom! Hope is perfect to keep people from acting, analyzing or planning, just hope and all the boring work is not necessary, usually works too: in a complex system usually there are a lot of homeostatic interactions so usually don't act is quite a sound choice, overreacting could usually be more damaging (long to explain but in an oscillating system usually exacerbate the oscillations).
Pipe dreams could even work, Panama and Suez are an example, and if you put a lot of effort in it almost anything could be done just b trial and error approach. This work in a dynamic system, usually the "powerful" are used to get their power from manipulating social systems so in their view all is the same and react as a complex, dynamic system, work with finite resources and feedback loops that derive from it is outside the mindset needed to rule! A side note is that all this misjudgment really profit someone near the core of the empire, those who sell to the empire the commodity to actuate their failed plans, Roma had to buy to keep Dacia under his rule so NATO for Afghanistan: soldiers get food, weapons, shelter, entertainment, fresh troops and so on, these are usually sourced more from the core of the empire so at the core someone is gaining a lot, selling them!
To me, we are looking at a California Gold Rush on planetary scale, the results will be the same: a lot of people will gain a little and a lot will lose a lot, there will be some gold for some (little) time and a few will get rich fueling the rush selling to the losers, all keeping the hype and the hope with some good story of success... time tested with gamble approach.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_gold_rush
Today's gold is called energy and fossil fuel depletion led to the "green" version, mostly solar and wind. Without some sort of buffering (cloudy day, no wind) that won't work well and one remedy is the use of Li-based batteries. Some thought there is much Li in the East of the Ukraine (1 reason to conquer it) but the country isn't even mentioned here:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/268790/countries-with-the-largest-lithium-reserves-worldwide/
A better buffer system is obtained with thermal solar, where concentrated solar energy heats molten salt which heats water to run the turbines generating electricity. With the reservoir of molten salt large enough, cloudy days aren't a problem.
Ukraine will be thrown under bus but what US deep state did to EU is obvious economic rug pull.
H.L. Mencken is usually credited with the saying that nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American people. Trump has had a lifetime to refine this idea, but Republicans have practiced a variation of it for decades. Nixon's racist "Southern strategy" and Karl Rove before he became too tepid for MAGA are examples. The minerals issue, particularly rare earths, probably started out in Trump's mind alongside the acquisition or invasion of Greenland, but I think Ugo is right on the mark when he says Plan B is to use Ukraine's refusal to be extorted (make a "deal") as an excuse to withdraw aid. Hegseth has backpedaled through the shit just enough to deny that he was handing Ukrainean territory and sovereignty over to the Russians. The fact that Ukraine (or Greenland) may not have much in the way of rare earth deposits is like telling a child that the candy store is out of his favorite confection. Then we have the other side of the coin trying to sell the public on a painless and green energy transition. If we just had the will and the right policies...
If there is no gold at the end of the “ Ukraine “ rainbow, this is an amazing scam .
How devastating for all who have died and suffered due to this tragic war .
Good point about the end of the rainbow. I added it to the text, and thanks!
My pleasure, Ugo you are a prolific & courageous writer .
Thanks Ugo. There is enough gold above ground anyway, as Seneca's roller-coaster seems poised for that big downward WHOOSH!
;-/