Anne Shingleton's "The Fallen Mastodon;" an absolute masterpiece. Only a great artist could see a mastodon in a mass of rock of the Apuane Mountains, in Italy. And yet the mastodon is there. It takes a creative mind to see through the exterior of reality and detect the hyperobjects around us. This image illustrates the post below, reposted from my blog on ecosystems, “
It seems the expressions "climate change" and "the problem is climate change" have taken over and obfuscated the understanding of the actual predicament, which is growth> overshoot> collapse; an accelerating phase civilization and nature are currently experiencing, peaking by around 2050* -- of which climate change is but one (albeit serious) symptom. *Ref: the "Limits to Growth" MIT study -See "Recalibration of limits to growth: An update of the World3 model (13 Nov 2023) https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1111/jiec.13442 . Thus this is to suggest that everyone associated with the (brilliant) Seneca Effect narrative, endeavor to deemphasize "climate change" as 'the problem;' instead helping readers focus on the broader and more relevant and truthful growth> overshoot> collapse predicament.
Civilization is currently well into accelerating, irreversible overshoot and collapse relative to declining resources/carrying capacity/biocapacity. We/civilization are the primary cause of -and witness to- the Sixth Extinction (aka the Anthropocene). We are close to the peak of the Seneca Cliff. Roughly 190 thousand people (net) are added to the population every day. Tipped tipping points such as the melting Greenland ice sheet and Antarctic ice sheet are beyond the ability of Homo sapiens --with any manner of technologies-- to slow or reverse. Nuclear war/nuclear winter is increasingly likely (Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, et al). It is contrary to the laws of biology/physics/ecology to have infinite growth on a finite planet. Per Footprint Analysis and other studies, Earth's declining biocapacity might (optimistically) sustainably and equitably support (i.e., at a Western European middle class lifestyle) around 500 million to one billion-or-so people--not the 8+ billion inequitably supported at present--thus the overshoot by a factor of 8-9 and increasing. Thus logically our focus should be more on adapting to -and striving for- resilience during and following this collapse, rather than trying to 'prevent it.' The preceding is why I respectfully disagree with the notion put forth by Eclipse, of "...solving climate change and feeding the human race sustainably for as long as there is an earth!" In addition, I believe the categorization of people as either 'pessimists' or 'optimists' is not helpful nor accurate, especially when science-based and empirical facts such as those mentioned above, speak for themselves. Ugo Bardi has written and lectured extensively about all of the above and much more, but the Seneca cliff condenses it all, and that is where we are. (Grazie Ugo) In addition to Ugo's books, recommended reading on this topic: "Overshoot—An Ecological Basis for Revolutionary Change" (Catton, 1980): https://www.resilience.org/stories/2015-02-15/william-catton-s-warning/" (W. Catton, 1982); "Deep Adaptation: A Map for Navigating Climate Tragedy" (J Bendell, 2020): https://www.lifeworth.com/deepadaptation.pdf; and videos: "Hopium: Detox and Recovery" (M. Dowd, 2021): YouTube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ib33HTadXdU
"Overshoot in a Nutshell--Understanding Our Predicament:" (M. Dowd, 2021): YouTube
(There is much more of course, but one needs to be willing and able to navigate through lots of greenwashing, obfuscation, and mis/dis-information, including by checking with others.)
After reading other comments concerned with 'Could the collapse (falling off the Seneca Cliff) occur as soon as within the next ten years?)' I feel compelled to suggest that folks do a little homework. Please read Catton's "Overshoot" book, and Bendell's "Deep Adaptation" paper. Watch Dowd's "Collapse in a Nutshell" and "Hopium" YouTube videos. And here's a new one: Please read the paper, "Limits to Growth Update: Recalibration of limits to growth: An update of the World3 model," November 2023 Journal of Industrial Ecology and University of Technology, Arts, Sciences, Koln, Germany. timelinehttps://www.researchgate.net/publication/375610074_Recalibration_of_limits_to_growth_An_update_of_the_World3_model
Pay special attention to the "Business As Usual" scenario--with a beautifully graphed -overly optimistic-* Seneca Cliff of global average civilization and eco-collapse between decades ago through roughly the 2050s (validated in Nov 2023 and updated in Nov 2023."
* 'Over-optimistic' because the Limits to Growth World-3 model does not include potential nuclear war(s) and related nuclear winters, already tipped tipping points such as Greenland ice sheet melt, and so on. However these, including other highly likely, interconnected, social, economic, environmental, and policy phenomena occurring and likely to occur with greater frequency and magnitude (see "The Great Acceleration" and Catton's book-- as the collapse becomes more evident) -- will, in my opinion, cause the collapse to happen sooner rather than later. This is not a pessimistic or worst-case scenario. We are not possibly about to 'crash.' We are experiencing and causing an irreversible growth>overshoot>collapse (the Sixth Extinction) that began several hundred years ago and is culminating in the present several decades.
Thus the logical recommended thing to do, is to prepare --ideally in a participatory, compassionate, equitable way-- for what has already happened in some parts of the world, and what will likely happen in other parts of the world, as global civilization (including population and economic) growth -and global heating- increase relative to exhausted ecological/environmental carrying capacity and, unfortunately, powers-that-be incompetence, obfuscation, greed, and related insanity. Preparation should include Adaptation, Resilience, Multi-Hazard Planning, Neighbors/Community Solidarity, etc.
The suggested reading and videos will help one understand these very-connected things, but one does need to be genuinely curious and invest some time.
Good luck to all of us and the natural world.
Comments/disagreements/suggestions are welcome. -) PH 24 April 2024
yes that is right but I found it weird that you said to someone in the comments that we won't collapse soon I know nobody can not predict the future but how do you know then that it will not be soon ?
I suppose that Galilean method is more about to establish rules not on faith but on repeatability, as rule new "laws" expand on the established ones: Newton upgrade Galileo but never overwrite his results, Einstein modify the concepts of Newton (and Lorentz, other less notable not included) but keep a lot of their work and results to the point that space missions use Newtonian modelling...
The elephant is still there also thinking about this solid and established science, no one can grab the foundation of inertia (and inertial frames) and even if toying around we got to dismiss some INTERPRETATION of one or the other of this figures their law can't be ruled out!
As a side note, the 3 body problem is insoluble (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three-body_problem) even if the laws are known still no shame was posed on Newtonian mechanic because of this....
The complex systems are unsuited to be compressed in simple laws for small timeframes or specific details still can be reliably predicted by simple laws on macro scale and long timeframes, climatic science also can be quite accurate if we don't look at it on yearly base but on geological frame, using simple parameters at total energy in (sun, underground, other) and out (radiated to space, stored as chemical energy, other) and modifying parameters (albedo,glasshouse effect, cloud cover, other) we can guess averages of temperature, rainfall, extreme weathers and similar macroscopic elements.
Obviously the work of "The Limits of Growth" is based on the same assumptions, we know that resources are limited but their extraction and transformation is governed by a system complex as an ecosystem and have a huge amount of uncertainty still based on the generic assumptions and simple laws used was quite right (still with a lot of "noise" looking at actual graphs). Today we can assume that we have surpassed some of that limits because we got some shifts in paradigms (shale, renewable, recycling, etch) but are facing other, pollution is the most pressing but also some forms of depletion of formerly renewable resources: biodiversity, sea life and pollinators can be some good examples, their risks are described by simple laws....
It's the fact that models are not perfect that actually gives me hope. Some pessimists about the future assume they know all the variables and see no opportunity for radical interventions - no technologies so good that they solve multiple issues at once. But I try to read broadly and with an open mind, and see 2 possible revolutions coming that could change the whole equation if we culturally and economically embraced them - 3d Seaweed and Shellfish farming by Bren Smith that could feed the world, and George Monbiot's raves about Precision Fermentation. Both allow huge amounts of land to be returned to the biosphere to grow trees and soak up carbon. The more successful these food technologies are - the more carbon gets sequestered. If a combination of them completely replaces grazing, that's 30% of the land returned to forestry and 3 TRILLION trees regrowing, solving climate change and feeding the human race sustainably for as long as there is an earth!
Ugo, I’m an engineer and I’m trained in failure analysis. Given a system I try and figure out failure modes. That is who is going to get injured and when If it’s an automobile and I see that the fender is gonna fall off. That’s a problem, is it gonna injure somebody maybe not he same the wheel falling off in 300,000 miles. Is that going to injure somebody. However if I look at the car and it’s driving out into the desert and it’s 400 miles into the desert when it runs out of gas, and everybody in the car has to walk out because nobody’s coming to help them then that failure is the one I focus on -- not to run out of gas in the middle of the desert. Climate change will injure people. But running out of fossil fuel without replacement will injure billions. So the discussion of how science should be done and how it should influence behavior has to do a reasonable failure analysis of civilization before even begin to focus y its little components like climate change. Here is a video that I made to explain our predicament. I hope you enjoy it.
"We are locked into an obsolete Galilean paradigm about science. It says that everything can be studied by experiments in controlled conditions that will generate repeatable and verifiable results"
Yes indeed, and good luck with that.
Decisions and Actions always take place with only imperfect information , but science can outline the general shape of the elephant, even if we are the size of a mite in comparison . A lot of mites, actually.
I see models as experiments; each in it’s laboratory setting. I am still reading 'Escape from Model Land' by Erica Thompson, herself a modeller and data scientist. The book is accessible to the non-scientist but taken very seriously by many of her colleagues. Our modern knowledge, such as it is, including that of the existence of the remote past, requires expert judgment and observation. If we are to comprehend much of the hyper cycles, our 'knowledge' needs to 'check in' with for example your own laboratory-based physical chemistry. You pointed this out expertly a few years ago referring to the carbon cycle, which accompanies the nature of life. Life is us, and Gaia, and her form a wisdom moving ahead of us over the worn rocks.
It seems the expressions "climate change" and "the problem is climate change" have taken over and obfuscated the understanding of the actual predicament, which is growth> overshoot> collapse; an accelerating phase civilization and nature are currently experiencing, peaking by around 2050* -- of which climate change is but one (albeit serious) symptom. *Ref: the "Limits to Growth" MIT study -See "Recalibration of limits to growth: An update of the World3 model (13 Nov 2023) https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1111/jiec.13442 . Thus this is to suggest that everyone associated with the (brilliant) Seneca Effect narrative, endeavor to deemphasize "climate change" as 'the problem;' instead helping readers focus on the broader and more relevant and truthful growth> overshoot> collapse predicament.
Civilization is currently well into accelerating, irreversible overshoot and collapse relative to declining resources/carrying capacity/biocapacity. We/civilization are the primary cause of -and witness to- the Sixth Extinction (aka the Anthropocene). We are close to the peak of the Seneca Cliff. Roughly 190 thousand people (net) are added to the population every day. Tipped tipping points such as the melting Greenland ice sheet and Antarctic ice sheet are beyond the ability of Homo sapiens --with any manner of technologies-- to slow or reverse. Nuclear war/nuclear winter is increasingly likely (Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, et al). It is contrary to the laws of biology/physics/ecology to have infinite growth on a finite planet. Per Footprint Analysis and other studies, Earth's declining biocapacity might (optimistically) sustainably and equitably support (i.e., at a Western European middle class lifestyle) around 500 million to one billion-or-so people--not the 8+ billion inequitably supported at present--thus the overshoot by a factor of 8-9 and increasing. Thus logically our focus should be more on adapting to -and striving for- resilience during and following this collapse, rather than trying to 'prevent it.' The preceding is why I respectfully disagree with the notion put forth by Eclipse, of "...solving climate change and feeding the human race sustainably for as long as there is an earth!" In addition, I believe the categorization of people as either 'pessimists' or 'optimists' is not helpful nor accurate, especially when science-based and empirical facts such as those mentioned above, speak for themselves. Ugo Bardi has written and lectured extensively about all of the above and much more, but the Seneca cliff condenses it all, and that is where we are. (Grazie Ugo) In addition to Ugo's books, recommended reading on this topic: "Overshoot—An Ecological Basis for Revolutionary Change" (Catton, 1980): https://www.resilience.org/stories/2015-02-15/william-catton-s-warning/" (W. Catton, 1982); "Deep Adaptation: A Map for Navigating Climate Tragedy" (J Bendell, 2020): https://www.lifeworth.com/deepadaptation.pdf; and videos: "Hopium: Detox and Recovery" (M. Dowd, 2021): YouTube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ib33HTadXdU
"Overshoot in a Nutshell--Understanding Our Predicament:" (M. Dowd, 2021): YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lPMPINPcrdk; "Collapse in a Nutshell: Understanding Our Predicament" (M. Dowd, 2021) YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e6FcNgOHYoo
(There is much more of course, but one needs to be willing and able to navigate through lots of greenwashing, obfuscation, and mis/dis-information, including by checking with others.)
After reading other comments concerned with 'Could the collapse (falling off the Seneca Cliff) occur as soon as within the next ten years?)' I feel compelled to suggest that folks do a little homework. Please read Catton's "Overshoot" book, and Bendell's "Deep Adaptation" paper. Watch Dowd's "Collapse in a Nutshell" and "Hopium" YouTube videos. And here's a new one: Please read the paper, "Limits to Growth Update: Recalibration of limits to growth: An update of the World3 model," November 2023 Journal of Industrial Ecology and University of Technology, Arts, Sciences, Koln, Germany. timelinehttps://www.researchgate.net/publication/375610074_Recalibration_of_limits_to_growth_An_update_of_the_World3_model
Pay special attention to the "Business As Usual" scenario--with a beautifully graphed -overly optimistic-* Seneca Cliff of global average civilization and eco-collapse between decades ago through roughly the 2050s (validated in Nov 2023 and updated in Nov 2023."
* 'Over-optimistic' because the Limits to Growth World-3 model does not include potential nuclear war(s) and related nuclear winters, already tipped tipping points such as Greenland ice sheet melt, and so on. However these, including other highly likely, interconnected, social, economic, environmental, and policy phenomena occurring and likely to occur with greater frequency and magnitude (see "The Great Acceleration" and Catton's book-- as the collapse becomes more evident) -- will, in my opinion, cause the collapse to happen sooner rather than later. This is not a pessimistic or worst-case scenario. We are not possibly about to 'crash.' We are experiencing and causing an irreversible growth>overshoot>collapse (the Sixth Extinction) that began several hundred years ago and is culminating in the present several decades.
Thus the logical recommended thing to do, is to prepare --ideally in a participatory, compassionate, equitable way-- for what has already happened in some parts of the world, and what will likely happen in other parts of the world, as global civilization (including population and economic) growth -and global heating- increase relative to exhausted ecological/environmental carrying capacity and, unfortunately, powers-that-be incompetence, obfuscation, greed, and related insanity. Preparation should include Adaptation, Resilience, Multi-Hazard Planning, Neighbors/Community Solidarity, etc.
The suggested reading and videos will help one understand these very-connected things, but one does need to be genuinely curious and invest some time.
Good luck to all of us and the natural world.
Comments/disagreements/suggestions are welcome. -) PH 24 April 2024
thank you professor you have a nice family and a beautifull house
Thanks to you. But the really important thing is not the house, but the people living in it.
Does "physical reality" exist within consciousness, or does consciousness exist as a special functional condition within a physical reality?
There's not an "objective test" which could produce "objective results".
It works either way.
but what does the new report earth for everybody mean that is the decisive decade to create a world for everybody ?
It means that the earlier we act, the better it is for everybody. But the borders of the question are vague.
but what if we collapse before this decade is over ?
Tough luck
tough luck do you mean it is likely we will collapse before the end of the decade because they say they test the model or tweak it every day ?
franky, do not get obsessed with the future. It will be what it has to be.
yes that is right but I found it weird that you said to someone in the comments that we won't collapse soon I know nobody can not predict the future but how do you know then that it will not be soon ?
I suppose that Galilean method is more about to establish rules not on faith but on repeatability, as rule new "laws" expand on the established ones: Newton upgrade Galileo but never overwrite his results, Einstein modify the concepts of Newton (and Lorentz, other less notable not included) but keep a lot of their work and results to the point that space missions use Newtonian modelling...
The elephant is still there also thinking about this solid and established science, no one can grab the foundation of inertia (and inertial frames) and even if toying around we got to dismiss some INTERPRETATION of one or the other of this figures their law can't be ruled out!
As a side note, the 3 body problem is insoluble (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three-body_problem) even if the laws are known still no shame was posed on Newtonian mechanic because of this....
The complex systems are unsuited to be compressed in simple laws for small timeframes or specific details still can be reliably predicted by simple laws on macro scale and long timeframes, climatic science also can be quite accurate if we don't look at it on yearly base but on geological frame, using simple parameters at total energy in (sun, underground, other) and out (radiated to space, stored as chemical energy, other) and modifying parameters (albedo,glasshouse effect, cloud cover, other) we can guess averages of temperature, rainfall, extreme weathers and similar macroscopic elements.
Obviously the work of "The Limits of Growth" is based on the same assumptions, we know that resources are limited but their extraction and transformation is governed by a system complex as an ecosystem and have a huge amount of uncertainty still based on the generic assumptions and simple laws used was quite right (still with a lot of "noise" looking at actual graphs). Today we can assume that we have surpassed some of that limits because we got some shifts in paradigms (shale, renewable, recycling, etch) but are facing other, pollution is the most pressing but also some forms of depletion of formerly renewable resources: biodiversity, sea life and pollinators can be some good examples, their risks are described by simple laws....
It's the fact that models are not perfect that actually gives me hope. Some pessimists about the future assume they know all the variables and see no opportunity for radical interventions - no technologies so good that they solve multiple issues at once. But I try to read broadly and with an open mind, and see 2 possible revolutions coming that could change the whole equation if we culturally and economically embraced them - 3d Seaweed and Shellfish farming by Bren Smith that could feed the world, and George Monbiot's raves about Precision Fermentation. Both allow huge amounts of land to be returned to the biosphere to grow trees and soak up carbon. The more successful these food technologies are - the more carbon gets sequestered. If a combination of them completely replaces grazing, that's 30% of the land returned to forestry and 3 TRILLION trees regrowing, solving climate change and feeding the human race sustainably for as long as there is an earth!
Ugo, I’m an engineer and I’m trained in failure analysis. Given a system I try and figure out failure modes. That is who is going to get injured and when If it’s an automobile and I see that the fender is gonna fall off. That’s a problem, is it gonna injure somebody maybe not he same the wheel falling off in 300,000 miles. Is that going to injure somebody. However if I look at the car and it’s driving out into the desert and it’s 400 miles into the desert when it runs out of gas, and everybody in the car has to walk out because nobody’s coming to help them then that failure is the one I focus on -- not to run out of gas in the middle of the desert. Climate change will injure people. But running out of fossil fuel without replacement will injure billions. So the discussion of how science should be done and how it should influence behavior has to do a reasonable failure analysis of civilization before even begin to focus y its little components like climate change. Here is a video that I made to explain our predicament. I hope you enjoy it.
X
Civilization's: "Running out of gas" story. 5.0
youtu.be/b5z5R6xqEG0
Jack alpert
Www.skil.org
"We are locked into an obsolete Galilean paradigm about science. It says that everything can be studied by experiments in controlled conditions that will generate repeatable and verifiable results"
Yes indeed, and good luck with that.
Decisions and Actions always take place with only imperfect information , but science can outline the general shape of the elephant, even if we are the size of a mite in comparison . A lot of mites, actually.
I see models as experiments; each in it’s laboratory setting. I am still reading 'Escape from Model Land' by Erica Thompson, herself a modeller and data scientist. The book is accessible to the non-scientist but taken very seriously by many of her colleagues. Our modern knowledge, such as it is, including that of the existence of the remote past, requires expert judgment and observation. If we are to comprehend much of the hyper cycles, our 'knowledge' needs to 'check in' with for example your own laboratory-based physical chemistry. You pointed this out expertly a few years ago referring to the carbon cycle, which accompanies the nature of life. Life is us, and Gaia, and her form a wisdom moving ahead of us over the worn rocks.