This post is very surprising. Flattening the curve is also what is required by the World Model of the Donella Meadow project, by the Hubbert peak oil model... there are so many models showing that our way of life is a dead end road. Are you scared you won't live long enough to see the Seneca cliff? I hope I won't see it, I hope my kids won't see it, so yes, I'd like to flatten the curve.
I don't believe that politicians are the problem, our consumption made possible by a lack of respect for nature and of social equality might be the real problem. I agree that our management of the COVID was a catastrophe, that our management of peak oil is a catastophe, that our management of climate change is a catastrophe, that our management of refugees is a catastrophe., that our management of schools is a catastophe, that the administrative work allowed by IT technology is a catastrophe... but I don't believe that the way to solve these issues is to say that we shouldn't take too seriously the models. There are limits to growth and that is the issue. The more we go over the limit, the more the system has to oscillate to get back to some equilibrium.
You raise an interesting point. I added a paragraph at the end of the post to describe how forcing the system to follow a certain path does not work and it is a bad idea in general. It is a concept that Donella Meadows already proposed 30 years ago, but nobody understood it. In any case, fixing delicate things using hammers (to use a term borrowed from Tomas Pueyo) is never a good idea. Flattening curves is exactly what we should NOT do.
Most important things don't work top down but bottom up. I guess that thinking at top down solutions or at hammering a problem could be (sorry if I hurt you) an elite bias.
It seems like we are seeing system-level experiments now that global energy expenditure and economy appear to have peaked, somewhere in late 2018 to late 2019.
If we "think globally and act locally", we may get out of debt, ride our bikes and grow vegetables, while considering where me might better live if there are to be decades of expensive and spotty electricity.
China's Deng Xiaopeng was reportedly very much influenced by reading The Limits To Growth, and sought to curve-fit Chinese eceonomc development into the baseline scenario graphs.
This post is very surprising. Flattening the curve is also what is required by the World Model of the Donella Meadow project, by the Hubbert peak oil model... there are so many models showing that our way of life is a dead end road. Are you scared you won't live long enough to see the Seneca cliff? I hope I won't see it, I hope my kids won't see it, so yes, I'd like to flatten the curve.
I don't believe that politicians are the problem, our consumption made possible by a lack of respect for nature and of social equality might be the real problem. I agree that our management of the COVID was a catastrophe, that our management of peak oil is a catastophe, that our management of climate change is a catastrophe, that our management of refugees is a catastrophe., that our management of schools is a catastophe, that the administrative work allowed by IT technology is a catastrophe... but I don't believe that the way to solve these issues is to say that we shouldn't take too seriously the models. There are limits to growth and that is the issue. The more we go over the limit, the more the system has to oscillate to get back to some equilibrium.
Etienne
You raise an interesting point. I added a paragraph at the end of the post to describe how forcing the system to follow a certain path does not work and it is a bad idea in general. It is a concept that Donella Meadows already proposed 30 years ago, but nobody understood it. In any case, fixing delicate things using hammers (to use a term borrowed from Tomas Pueyo) is never a good idea. Flattening curves is exactly what we should NOT do.
Most important things don't work top down but bottom up. I guess that thinking at top down solutions or at hammering a problem could be (sorry if I hurt you) an elite bias.
Etienne
It seems like we are seeing system-level experiments now that global energy expenditure and economy appear to have peaked, somewhere in late 2018 to late 2019.
If we "think globally and act locally", we may get out of debt, ride our bikes and grow vegetables, while considering where me might better live if there are to be decades of expensive and spotty electricity.
China's Deng Xiaopeng was reportedly very much influenced by reading The Limits To Growth, and sought to curve-fit Chinese eceonomc development into the baseline scenario graphs.