2025-2026 will come and go, and though there are likely (make that "guaranteed") to be some local disasters, there will be no global collapse. Expect things to be a bit crappier than they are today, and then a bit more crappy than that in 2027-2028, and so on. Unless you happen to be caught up in one of the local disasters, of course.
Just that they keep predicting apocalypse and being proven wrong. Take the Malthusian crowd. Did we starve? No, we didn't. We just got garbage food that makes us fat and sick. It's like that all around. They predict disaster, and what we get is far more boring crapification.
"far more boring crapification" <-- The technical term is 'substitution'. If a resource becomes depleted another resource of inferior quality will be used as a replacement. If possible.
We no longer have the resources for everyone to have good food. Do you think Americans would be fat and diabetic from corn syrup consumption if Cuba had become an American state through a twist of history? No because there would be no end to cheap cane sugar. Which relative to corn syrup is healthier. Profit decides what you eat. Did you think food choice comes down to anything else?
What cannot go on will not go on. You'll get a local collapse here, and then a local collapse there, and minor and major wars caused in part by the dwindling of resources, and who knows, maybe a few nukes will go off. A Hollywood-style global apocalypse, though? I very much doubt it.
Collapse comes individually and locally: like the Roman soldier who was sent to find out why supplies and wages hadn't arrived, and came back floating down the river, headless.....
Asking for a date of collapse is a mark of not understanding the process. Through millennia technology has provided the means for humanity to transcend existing limits. Technology has always resolved moments of crisis allowing renewed production and GROWTH to continue. People then overpopulate to new limits with new technology again coming to the rescue. More growth leading to a new crisis again results. An on and on. Until calories that people eat come from miles underground as crude oil. Oil to be refined to grow food that CANNOT BE GROWN WITHOUT IT. Then when it runs out billions and possibly everyone dies.
well Keith Hayes why does ugo bardi than say it will not happen in the year 2025 or 2026 when I asked him will we collapse he stated that there is no hurry I asked him that I found it weird that the club of rome will present a new book in 2026 on weec and his respons was nothing will happen unless somebody presses the nuke button ?
No one can give you a date , @Franky. Like a human lifetime, all you can do is be aware of the current decline (much like an 80 year old person can't live as they once did at 18 years old) and live a meaningful life with the time available.
OTOH, we are a very tough species and have survived much already. Although suburbs and SUVs are probably not going to be around very long, they aren't all that great, anyway.
I expect humanity and even some type of civilization (perhaps a much improved version) will recover and be around for many millennia .
The COVID debacle has shown that we (whether humans in general or just 21st century humans - it doesn't really matter) are utterly incapable of productive collective action against a non-human threat. "Productive" is the key word here. Yes, of course we can do plenty of things that will only make things worse. As we have seen. So, I've stopped objecting when people insist that climate change et al are not real or not a big deal. After all, action to address such things will only make a bad situation even worse. As we saw with COVID. Doing absolutely nothing at all and suffering the consequences is almost certainly better than doing anything that we might realistically get ourselves to do collectively. Again, as we saw with COVID.
I am starting to think in the same way. Maybe it is better to do nothing and let the ecosystem solve the problem. But, as I say in the post, it won't be painless.
Oh, it definitely won't be painless. I didn't mean to suggest that. Just that the "we must DO something!!" tends to lead to "this is something, hence we must do this," when the "this" in question only makes everything worse.
Nothing in life is painless; even love, in fact, especially love.......
The Great Mother, 'who causes all things to grow, and all things to rot', in the words of the old Germanic prayer, will sort things out just fine. She will not be consulting us as to ends and means.
Our task is now to live decently, to go to our deaths with purified souls, and not participate in the murderous, impious, Bio-Techno-Totalitarian insanity which will engulf our collapsing societies.
Read 'Defying Hitler' by Sebastian Haffner, real life account of growing up in the professional class in Germany, and resisting the little that could be done. Haffner (pseudonym) escaped to Britain and reported on the war for the BBC Radio. The book gives no inkling that oppression as grotesque as beheading young women was policy for the Nazis.
Who are the Nazis today? What is the pure race that modern nazis advocate? White European? Non-slavic? Why does Putin say we are all fighting nazism today, not just in UK? Who is the we he refers to? BRICS+ ? The Global South? All outside the west???
i really do not get you prof ugo bardi first you say nothing is gonna happen in the years 2025 and 2026 and now we are gonna die with that post and i was really looking forward to the club of rome new book update on weec 2026 presentation from the fifth element with the update no limits to learning ?
The defeat of the German army at Stalingrad marked a turning point in WWII leading to the eventual downfall of the Nazi regime. This defeat was hidden from the German People causing Sophie Scholl and her brother Hans to print leaflets. The White Rose believed that the German people had a right to know the truth about the war. TPTB had other ideas. Just as TPTB have other ideas about truth now.
The later 1944 plotters were unprincipled militarists and German nationalists who wanted to stop the war before things got too bad. If Hitler had been on a wining streak, they would never have acted.
They miscalculated as to the power of the Nazi ideology, and Hitler's persisting personal charisma, as their diaries and eventual fate showed.
Sure restack, homage due, meditate her story. Sophie’s leaflets return this day to our imagination. Julian Assange is very unwell in prison. Thank you Ugo for thinking so clearly.
so it is true what scientists say on twitter that we will collapse in the year 2025 or 2026 ?
2025-2026 will come and go, and though there are likely (make that "guaranteed") to be some local disasters, there will be no global collapse. Expect things to be a bit crappier than they are today, and then a bit more crappy than that in 2027-2028, and so on. Unless you happen to be caught up in one of the local disasters, of course.
sorry what do you mean Irena?
Just that they keep predicting apocalypse and being proven wrong. Take the Malthusian crowd. Did we starve? No, we didn't. We just got garbage food that makes us fat and sick. It's like that all around. They predict disaster, and what we get is far more boring crapification.
"far more boring crapification" <-- The technical term is 'substitution'. If a resource becomes depleted another resource of inferior quality will be used as a replacement. If possible.
We no longer have the resources for everyone to have good food. Do you think Americans would be fat and diabetic from corn syrup consumption if Cuba had become an American state through a twist of history? No because there would be no end to cheap cane sugar. Which relative to corn syrup is healthier. Profit decides what you eat. Did you think food choice comes down to anything else?
but the limits to growth stated we will collapse ?
What cannot go on will not go on. You'll get a local collapse here, and then a local collapse there, and minor and major wars caused in part by the dwindling of resources, and who knows, maybe a few nukes will go off. A Hollywood-style global apocalypse, though? I very much doubt it.
Collapse comes individually and locally: like the Roman soldier who was sent to find out why supplies and wages hadn't arrived, and came back floating down the river, headless.....
limits to growth talked about 0.5 billion death per decade if I remember correctly ?
Asking for a date of collapse is a mark of not understanding the process. Through millennia technology has provided the means for humanity to transcend existing limits. Technology has always resolved moments of crisis allowing renewed production and GROWTH to continue. People then overpopulate to new limits with new technology again coming to the rescue. More growth leading to a new crisis again results. An on and on. Until calories that people eat come from miles underground as crude oil. Oil to be refined to grow food that CANNOT BE GROWN WITHOUT IT. Then when it runs out billions and possibly everyone dies.
well Keith Hayes why does ugo bardi than say it will not happen in the year 2025 or 2026 when I asked him will we collapse he stated that there is no hurry I asked him that I found it weird that the club of rome will present a new book in 2026 on weec and his respons was nothing will happen unless somebody presses the nuke button ?
No one can give you a date , @Franky. Like a human lifetime, all you can do is be aware of the current decline (much like an 80 year old person can't live as they once did at 18 years old) and live a meaningful life with the time available.
OTOH, we are a very tough species and have survived much already. Although suburbs and SUVs are probably not going to be around very long, they aren't all that great, anyway.
I expect humanity and even some type of civilization (perhaps a much improved version) will recover and be around for many millennia .
Yes
so better enjoy or last year on earth and say our goodbyes to or family's and friends
The COVID debacle has shown that we (whether humans in general or just 21st century humans - it doesn't really matter) are utterly incapable of productive collective action against a non-human threat. "Productive" is the key word here. Yes, of course we can do plenty of things that will only make things worse. As we have seen. So, I've stopped objecting when people insist that climate change et al are not real or not a big deal. After all, action to address such things will only make a bad situation even worse. As we saw with COVID. Doing absolutely nothing at all and suffering the consequences is almost certainly better than doing anything that we might realistically get ourselves to do collectively. Again, as we saw with COVID.
I am starting to think in the same way. Maybe it is better to do nothing and let the ecosystem solve the problem. But, as I say in the post, it won't be painless.
Oh, it definitely won't be painless. I didn't mean to suggest that. Just that the "we must DO something!!" tends to lead to "this is something, hence we must do this," when the "this" in question only makes everything worse.
I know. It is like a birth. It is not painless, but it has to happen
Nothing in life is painless; even love, in fact, especially love.......
The Great Mother, 'who causes all things to grow, and all things to rot', in the words of the old Germanic prayer, will sort things out just fine. She will not be consulting us as to ends and means.
Our task is now to live decently, to go to our deaths with purified souls, and not participate in the murderous, impious, Bio-Techno-Totalitarian insanity which will engulf our collapsing societies.
Read 'Defying Hitler' by Sebastian Haffner, real life account of growing up in the professional class in Germany, and resisting the little that could be done. Haffner (pseudonym) escaped to Britain and reported on the war for the BBC Radio. The book gives no inkling that oppression as grotesque as beheading young women was policy for the Nazis.
Who are the Nazis today? What is the pure race that modern nazis advocate? White European? Non-slavic? Why does Putin say we are all fighting nazism today, not just in UK? Who is the we he refers to? BRICS+ ? The Global South? All outside the west???
i really do not get you prof ugo bardi first you say nothing is gonna happen in the years 2025 and 2026 and now we are gonna die with that post and i was really looking forward to the club of rome new book update on weec 2026 presentation from the fifth element with the update no limits to learning ?
If I hadn't read the title first, I would have though you were talking about the current situation in Ukraine...
Looks like doubling on our own mistakes and still hope for the best is more than an habit.
https://chasingthesquirrel.com/public/videos/the_search_for_the_white_rose.mp4
The defeat of the German army at Stalingrad marked a turning point in WWII leading to the eventual downfall of the Nazi regime. This defeat was hidden from the German People causing Sophie Scholl and her brother Hans to print leaflets. The White Rose believed that the German people had a right to know the truth about the war. TPTB had other ideas. Just as TPTB have other ideas about truth now.
Yes, the defeat of Stalingrad was the turning point, and the reason why Sophie Scholl did what she did
Sophie and co were principled. True martyrs.
The later 1944 plotters were unprincipled militarists and German nationalists who wanted to stop the war before things got too bad. If Hitler had been on a wining streak, they would never have acted.
They miscalculated as to the power of the Nazi ideology, and Hitler's persisting personal charisma, as their diaries and eventual fate showed.
Sure restack, homage due, meditate her story. Sophie’s leaflets return this day to our imagination. Julian Assange is very unwell in prison. Thank you Ugo for thinking so clearly.
'War on the Ecosystem'
'… Wisdom looks for words
Their eyes follow me
As Hagen’s dogs follow him,
Trust is upon us…’