The new version of the “Seneca Effect” blog on Substack is doing reasonably well, so I thought it was time to prepare a page that explains what the Seneca Effect is and what it can teach us. (image by Dall-E)
As humans flout more and more planetary boundaries, we certainly do seem destined for some kind of of collapse.
Will H. sapiens go extinct? Extremely unlikely. But there will be a sharp human population correction, accompanied by a serious loss of biodiversity. We're well past peak prosperity and the collapse will be rather rapid.
Will there be mass migration and suffering? It's already starting and will get a lot worse.
Will that trigger regional or global conflict? It could, easily. Especially as citizens' discontent will lead to discord, a hunt for simplistic solutions, and the likely rise of Trump-style autocracy - from where it's but a short journey to fascism.
I'm old, have no kids, and I'm doing what I can as a climate activist. It should be easy for me to sit here and be philosophical about all this. But I fail the Seneca test - all this does upset me, especially as hardly anyone I know has any intention of changing their lifestyle or getting political to fight for their kids' future. We're living in a bubble of denial and delusion.
Discussion down at the Forum? Just like the old days! Smile. However, I have been wondering for a long time, perhaps half expecting, panic to set in among the globally connected, pehaps about now. Perhaps the USA will 'get it'. As you say, things move faster these days, a lot faster, maybe even sudden realisation? I'm sitting here in slightly vulnerable circumstances near the eastern Scottish Border listening to a wind reaching gusts of 60+mph (yes, we still count wind in old units). Parts of western Britain and Ireland are experiencing gusts of 90mph and NW Scotland will have these later. Sellafield nuclear complex has suspended operations for the night. The ocean surface temperatures across the Atlantic from whence this comes have been 'off the charts' this year. As some are remarking, that is a hell of a lot of energy. We can wonder about future wind farms, electricty grids and trees. Military expenditure, AI / internet of things and manned space flight seem curious priorities?
civilization collapse has started today so population would start to fall from 2030 the limits to growth where correct the shale gas growth has come to an end in the united states according to art berman ?
In dialectic terms the Seneca cliff represents a change from quantity to quality. Dialectics concerns itself with change within systems. Internal relations within a system under study, in this case civilization, can no longer be maintained because internal contradictions force change. The sudden collapse of internal structure becomes an obvious consequence of not having energy to turn the wheels needed to keep the internal structure intact. The road to ruin is collapse of internal structure. Like a falling house of cards.
if you may make a guess can we hang on until 2030 I know we can not predict the future but if I look at the population curve in the limits to growth model in shows it will likely start in 2030 ?
Franky I have mentioned this before Ugo. Although he has not responded to me he has responded to you that the system is changing more rapidly today than in the past. I have suggested that managing momentum (keep it from producing injury is a great deal more difficult than addressing a variable that is too big or two small.
I have suggested to Ugo the same problem that you suggested was manifested in limits to growth.
Where overshot injury was manifested by contracting supports not exceeding a fixed carrying capacity.
Here is a little view of underestimating injury related to population momentum.
As humans flout more and more planetary boundaries, we certainly do seem destined for some kind of of collapse.
Will H. sapiens go extinct? Extremely unlikely. But there will be a sharp human population correction, accompanied by a serious loss of biodiversity. We're well past peak prosperity and the collapse will be rather rapid.
Will there be mass migration and suffering? It's already starting and will get a lot worse.
Will that trigger regional or global conflict? It could, easily. Especially as citizens' discontent will lead to discord, a hunt for simplistic solutions, and the likely rise of Trump-style autocracy - from where it's but a short journey to fascism.
I'm old, have no kids, and I'm doing what I can as a climate activist. It should be easy for me to sit here and be philosophical about all this. But I fail the Seneca test - all this does upset me, especially as hardly anyone I know has any intention of changing their lifestyle or getting political to fight for their kids' future. We're living in a bubble of denial and delusion.
i hope we have a few century's left like the roman empire ?
Unfortunately, things move much faster now than in Roman times.
Discussion down at the Forum? Just like the old days! Smile. However, I have been wondering for a long time, perhaps half expecting, panic to set in among the globally connected, pehaps about now. Perhaps the USA will 'get it'. As you say, things move faster these days, a lot faster, maybe even sudden realisation? I'm sitting here in slightly vulnerable circumstances near the eastern Scottish Border listening to a wind reaching gusts of 60+mph (yes, we still count wind in old units). Parts of western Britain and Ireland are experiencing gusts of 90mph and NW Scotland will have these later. Sellafield nuclear complex has suspended operations for the night. The ocean surface temperatures across the Atlantic from whence this comes have been 'off the charts' this year. As some are remarking, that is a hell of a lot of energy. We can wonder about future wind farms, electricty grids and trees. Military expenditure, AI / internet of things and manned space flight seem curious priorities?
civilization collapse has started today so population would start to fall from 2030 the limits to growth where correct the shale gas growth has come to an end in the united states according to art berman ?
In dialectic terms the Seneca cliff represents a change from quantity to quality. Dialectics concerns itself with change within systems. Internal relations within a system under study, in this case civilization, can no longer be maintained because internal contradictions force change. The sudden collapse of internal structure becomes an obvious consequence of not having energy to turn the wheels needed to keep the internal structure intact. The road to ruin is collapse of internal structure. Like a falling house of cards.
It is a good definition of the Seneca Collapse.
if you may make a guess can we hang on until 2030 I know we can not predict the future but if I look at the population curve in the limits to growth model in shows it will likely start in 2030 ?
Franky I have mentioned this before Ugo. Although he has not responded to me he has responded to you that the system is changing more rapidly today than in the past. I have suggested that managing momentum (keep it from producing injury is a great deal more difficult than addressing a variable that is too big or two small.
I have suggested to Ugo the same problem that you suggested was manifested in limits to growth.
Where overshot injury was manifested by contracting supports not exceeding a fixed carrying capacity.
Here is a little view of underestimating injury related to population momentum.
Civilization's: "Running out of gas" story. 5.0
youtu.be/b5z5R6xqEG0
Jack Alpert
Www.skil.org
according to some people on internet collapse will start in 2025 due to shortage of crude oil 🛢 ?
“there is no success that’s not the result of a past failure,” a statement that I call the “Seneca Rebound."
And boy do we have some past failures to build upon ...
Apparently there is no single tipping point, just a bumpy
roller coaster ride that started decades ago and probably has decades to run, with no way to know where the bottom is until we are well beyond it.