The new version of the “Seneca Effect” blog on Substack is doing reasonably well, so I thought it was time to prepare a page that explains what the Seneca Effect is and what it can teach us. (image by Dall-E) During the 1st Century AD, the Roman philosopher Lucius Annaeus Seneca observed the start of the disintegration of the Roman Empire. It was a process that would take a few more centuries to complete, but that was already evident to those who were willing to look beyond the surface of the still powerful Empire.
As humans flout more and more planetary boundaries, we certainly do seem destined for some kind of of collapse.
Will H. sapiens go extinct? Extremely unlikely. But there will be a sharp human population correction, accompanied by a serious loss of biodiversity. We're well past peak prosperity and the collapse will be rather rapid.
Will there be mass migration and suffering? It's already starting and will get a lot worse.
Will that trigger regional or global conflict? It could, easily. Especially as citizens' discontent will lead to discord, a hunt for simplistic solutions, and the likely rise of Trump-style autocracy - from where it's but a short journey to fascism.
I'm old, have no kids, and I'm doing what I can as a climate activist. It should be easy for me to sit here and be philosophical about all this. But I fail the Seneca test - all this does upset me, especially as hardly anyone I know has any intention of changing their lifestyle or getting political to fight for their kids' future. We're living in a bubble of denial and delusion.
In dialectic terms the Seneca cliff represents a change from quantity to quality. Dialectics concerns itself with change within systems. Internal relations within a system under study, in this case civilization, can no longer be maintained because internal contradictions force change. The sudden collapse of internal structure becomes an obvious consequence of not having energy to turn the wheels needed to keep the internal structure intact. The road to ruin is collapse of internal structure. Like a falling house of cards.
if you may make a guess can we hang on until 2030 I know we can not predict the future but if I look at the population curve in the limits to growth model in shows it will likely start in 2030 ?
As humans flout more and more planetary boundaries, we certainly do seem destined for some kind of of collapse.
Will H. sapiens go extinct? Extremely unlikely. But there will be a sharp human population correction, accompanied by a serious loss of biodiversity. We're well past peak prosperity and the collapse will be rather rapid.
Will there be mass migration and suffering? It's already starting and will get a lot worse.
Will that trigger regional or global conflict? It could, easily. Especially as citizens' discontent will lead to discord, a hunt for simplistic solutions, and the likely rise of Trump-style autocracy - from where it's but a short journey to fascism.
I'm old, have no kids, and I'm doing what I can as a climate activist. It should be easy for me to sit here and be philosophical about all this. But I fail the Seneca test - all this does upset me, especially as hardly anyone I know has any intention of changing their lifestyle or getting political to fight for their kids' future. We're living in a bubble of denial and delusion.
i hope we have a few century's left like the roman empire ?
In dialectic terms the Seneca cliff represents a change from quantity to quality. Dialectics concerns itself with change within systems. Internal relations within a system under study, in this case civilization, can no longer be maintained because internal contradictions force change. The sudden collapse of internal structure becomes an obvious consequence of not having energy to turn the wheels needed to keep the internal structure intact. The road to ruin is collapse of internal structure. Like a falling house of cards.
if you may make a guess can we hang on until 2030 I know we can not predict the future but if I look at the population curve in the limits to growth model in shows it will likely start in 2030 ?
according to some people on internet collapse will start in 2025 due to shortage of crude oil 🛢 ?
“there is no success that’s not the result of a past failure,” a statement that I call the “Seneca Rebound."
And boy do we have some past failures to build upon ...
Apparently there is no single tipping point, just a bumpy
roller coaster ride that started decades ago and probably has decades to run, with no way to know where the bottom is until we are well beyond it.