Yes, it's quite possible that Milei, and Trump for that matter, have been reading Tainter's Collapse of Complex Societies. Or somehow reached the same general conclusions.
That is, if a system is not sustainable anymore and is collapsing under its own weight, there is only one option that can prevent utter collapse. This is to drastically downsize and simply it. Whatever the cost. Because it will always be cheaper than collapse itself.
And so it happens that, after decade of economic failure and hyper-inflation in Argentina, Milei is downsizing the whole state apparatus. Telling to his people this going to be costly but it is the only option.
In the mean time, Trump not only tasked Musk to do the same in Washington but also realised the days of the global American empire are now counted. And it's time to leave the fringes to fend for themselves and to refocus on the core of the Empire. That is Northern America, from Panama to Groenland.
In case of Argentina there is not so much depletion as there is mismanagement of resources. And the way he is removing social safety nets is criminal negligence rather that planned reduction. It's bound to backlash. It may be that US deep state is forcing it on Argentina. In general most countries are not yet in such state of resource depletion that requires such radical measures. It's more that the elites are incompetent and malevolent.
Small inflation (not hyperinflation!) is good indicator of the measure of resource depletion. As long as there is small inflation you can be sure that there are still resources, somewhere. It doesn't mean that situation is good in a particular country but it means that globally there are resources. Hyperinflation is indicator of economic over-speculation. But China is still exporting deflation which means that globally resources are still available. The troubles of western economies are self inflicted. In that sense reading of the books of Michael Hudson and David Graeber is recommended.
In essence that is basic idea of libertarianism. If you remove social safety nets you not only save on bureaucracy but you hope that it will cause poor people to die, hence you achieve further reduction in expenses. This reasoning is wrong. Poor people are incredibly resilient and tend to riot and kill rich people. This strategy is self defeating for rich people. It will only take short period of time for poor Argentinians to grasp that voting for Milei was mistake.
The other thing is, poor people are still consumers. They still buy stuff (often on credit) that keeps the economy going. Rich people only buy so many pairs of shoes, shirts, underwear and TV channels. And in the days of privatised energy and water, poor people provide those companies their profits too.
There will be a tipping point where the perceived cost savings of not having poor people are overtaken by the losses to private companies/corporations due to lost sales. Such a tipping point will be far too subtle for these chainsaw imps to work out, indeed they would have to employ an entire bureaucracy to find it out.
Lost sales for companies/corporations are already killing shopping malls. One only has to visit Metal Leo YT channel to see deserted and closed shops in city centers of California that he visits with his camera. That's the reason why in economy inflation is better than deflation. Inflation means that there is still buyers. Deflation is agony and death of economy. In deflation buyers are lost and buyers are what makes economy running.
Had a quick look thanks, a mosquito lake and closed gas stations as well as emtpy shops.
True here in the UK too, outside of the university cities and central London, empty shop units and boarded up offices are very common, just not seen on mainstream media. There is talk of councils being allowed to permit business owners to convert empty shops, pubs and clubs into flats, which where I live they have done to some extent. Most of our town centre buildings are 19th century stone constructions, so pretty tough structures and expensive to demolish.
The idea that bureaucracy is pollution, and that it will therefore die in its own effluent, is an interesting one.
It seems as if social media is suffering from the same problem. It is so polluted that people are giving up on it, and are looking for new sources of information and opinion. Ted Gioia’s article on this issue 'Mainstream Is Now Fringe, and Fringe Is Mainstream' at https://www.honest-broker.com/p/mainstream-is-now-fringe-and-fringe is worth reading.
I voted for him, he's been doing a great job this first year. His executiive ability is impressive, he's kind of restoring the king like function of the presidency. I voted for him because the alternative to him was turning into a narco state, like venezuela. I'd take a bukele type president anytime. The last president before him (from the peronist party, progressive left) said when justifying wheat gmo "think of the african children" No state or politician is going to do whats necessary and we know it. Milei in this sense is just like the rest. But in Argentina he is 100% an improvement. In the future a transition to a more sustainable economic model will became easier thanks to the chainsaw.
In terms of depletion, panic has already set in, leading to disastrous mistakes such as investing huge amounts of resources to exploit “shale” or “tight” oil.
Remember when conventional oil peaked in 2005 -- then due to supply issues --- the price of a barrel hit $147 just months prior to the GFC.
Without shale ... what do you think would have happened to the price of a barrel of oil?
It would have blown it's top -- but then because nobody would be able to afford anything do to raging inflation ... oil prices would have collapsed to the point where all oil producers went bankrupt.
Shale has been the only thing between us... and total collapse
An average 10 year old could understand this - aren't you a university professor????
Reducing economic growth, putting limits on resource exploitation, reducing birth rates, and the like would have eased the pressure on resources and limited pollution.
Reducing growth otherwise known as a recession .... ultimately leads to a deflationary death spiral ... you know - where people buy less due to the recession --- so companies shed jobs --- people who have no job buy next to nothing ... so companies shed more jobs... prices crash due to lack of demand ... causing companies to go bankrupt -- shedding huge amounts of jobs ... eventually what you get is a total collapse of civilization.
Reducing birth rates has a similar impact (see Japan and China)
Yes, it's quite possible that Milei, and Trump for that matter, have been reading Tainter's Collapse of Complex Societies. Or somehow reached the same general conclusions.
That is, if a system is not sustainable anymore and is collapsing under its own weight, there is only one option that can prevent utter collapse. This is to drastically downsize and simply it. Whatever the cost. Because it will always be cheaper than collapse itself.
And so it happens that, after decade of economic failure and hyper-inflation in Argentina, Milei is downsizing the whole state apparatus. Telling to his people this going to be costly but it is the only option.
In the mean time, Trump not only tasked Musk to do the same in Washington but also realised the days of the global American empire are now counted. And it's time to leave the fringes to fend for themselves and to refocus on the core of the Empire. That is Northern America, from Panama to Groenland.
In case of Argentina there is not so much depletion as there is mismanagement of resources. And the way he is removing social safety nets is criminal negligence rather that planned reduction. It's bound to backlash. It may be that US deep state is forcing it on Argentina. In general most countries are not yet in such state of resource depletion that requires such radical measures. It's more that the elites are incompetent and malevolent.
I'm not saying Milei is right. Or even less so that it will work.
I just trying to understand what his logic could be.
Beside... would it be less criminal to wait until the state collapse for good when there is already 2 digits monthly inflation anyway ?
Small inflation (not hyperinflation!) is good indicator of the measure of resource depletion. As long as there is small inflation you can be sure that there are still resources, somewhere. It doesn't mean that situation is good in a particular country but it means that globally there are resources. Hyperinflation is indicator of economic over-speculation. But China is still exporting deflation which means that globally resources are still available. The troubles of western economies are self inflicted. In that sense reading of the books of Michael Hudson and David Graeber is recommended.
In essence that is basic idea of libertarianism. If you remove social safety nets you not only save on bureaucracy but you hope that it will cause poor people to die, hence you achieve further reduction in expenses. This reasoning is wrong. Poor people are incredibly resilient and tend to riot and kill rich people. This strategy is self defeating for rich people. It will only take short period of time for poor Argentinians to grasp that voting for Milei was mistake.
The other thing is, poor people are still consumers. They still buy stuff (often on credit) that keeps the economy going. Rich people only buy so many pairs of shoes, shirts, underwear and TV channels. And in the days of privatised energy and water, poor people provide those companies their profits too.
There will be a tipping point where the perceived cost savings of not having poor people are overtaken by the losses to private companies/corporations due to lost sales. Such a tipping point will be far too subtle for these chainsaw imps to work out, indeed they would have to employ an entire bureaucracy to find it out.
Lost sales for companies/corporations are already killing shopping malls. One only has to visit Metal Leo YT channel to see deserted and closed shops in city centers of California that he visits with his camera. That's the reason why in economy inflation is better than deflation. Inflation means that there is still buyers. Deflation is agony and death of economy. In deflation buyers are lost and buyers are what makes economy running.
Had a quick look thanks, a mosquito lake and closed gas stations as well as emtpy shops.
True here in the UK too, outside of the university cities and central London, empty shop units and boarded up offices are very common, just not seen on mainstream media. There is talk of councils being allowed to permit business owners to convert empty shops, pubs and clubs into flats, which where I live they have done to some extent. Most of our town centre buildings are 19th century stone constructions, so pretty tough structures and expensive to demolish.
The idea that bureaucracy is pollution, and that it will therefore die in its own effluent, is an interesting one.
It seems as if social media is suffering from the same problem. It is so polluted that people are giving up on it, and are looking for new sources of information and opinion. Ted Gioia’s article on this issue 'Mainstream Is Now Fringe, and Fringe Is Mainstream' at https://www.honest-broker.com/p/mainstream-is-now-fringe-and-fringe is worth reading.
there where 3 bleuprints , bleuprint 1 bau scenario 2030, bleuprint 2 bau 2 2040 ,blueprint 3 standard run 2050 so what blueprint are we following ?
See that X?
We wuz just there...
hastily put together that they think will solve the problem.
--> hastily put together plans that they think will solve the problem.
Corrected. Thanks!
I voted for him, he's been doing a great job this first year. His executiive ability is impressive, he's kind of restoring the king like function of the presidency. I voted for him because the alternative to him was turning into a narco state, like venezuela. I'd take a bukele type president anytime. The last president before him (from the peronist party, progressive left) said when justifying wheat gmo "think of the african children" No state or politician is going to do whats necessary and we know it. Milei in this sense is just like the rest. But in Argentina he is 100% an improvement. In the future a transition to a more sustainable economic model will became easier thanks to the chainsaw.
In terms of depletion, panic has already set in, leading to disastrous mistakes such as investing huge amounts of resources to exploit “shale” or “tight” oil.
Remember when conventional oil peaked in 2005 -- then due to supply issues --- the price of a barrel hit $147 just months prior to the GFC.
Without shale ... what do you think would have happened to the price of a barrel of oil?
It would have blown it's top -- but then because nobody would be able to afford anything do to raging inflation ... oil prices would have collapsed to the point where all oil producers went bankrupt.
Shale has been the only thing between us... and total collapse
An average 10 year old could understand this - aren't you a university professor????
Wow.
Reducing economic growth, putting limits on resource exploitation, reducing birth rates, and the like would have eased the pressure on resources and limited pollution.
Reducing growth otherwise known as a recession .... ultimately leads to a deflationary death spiral ... you know - where people buy less due to the recession --- so companies shed jobs --- people who have no job buy next to nothing ... so companies shed more jobs... prices crash due to lack of demand ... causing companies to go bankrupt -- shedding huge amounts of jobs ... eventually what you get is a total collapse of civilization.
Reducing birth rates has a similar impact (see Japan and China)
How is it that you do not understand this?
>>deflationary death spiral<<
The logic seems inescapable, yet every deflation has ended.
Interesting analysis, the system needs poor people as they are doing the work. Complacency or panic …that resonates , thank you