“Increases are of sluggish growth, but the way to ruin is rapid” is a sentence written by the Roman Philosopher Lucius Annaeus Seneca during the 1st century AD. It seems that we are on the cusp of the red curve, that moment of madness that precedes collapse.
Great article. It's also interesting to look at Oswald Spengler's explanation for the decline of the West. According to him its not so much the material factors, but rather the immaterial ones that lead to the decline of a civilization. One important factor for the downfall of a civilization according to Spengler is the loss of a coherent world view and purpose in a civilization. That is certainly something we see at work today.
If Mr Nair thinks a Chinese style of authoritarian dictatorship is the answer then I am totally puzzled. China's environmental record is abysmal and its aggression in the surrounding shipping lanes (forcefully seizing Philippine and Vietnamese areas) hardly bodes well for world peace. I was just reading today that two of their largest pharmaceutical companies are still using endangered species body parts in their concoctions despite promises to stop. I think Toynbee's A Study of History predicts an era of local warlords next; I think I might prefer that to the tender ministrations of Mr Xi Jinping and his ilk.
Good point: is it better to have many warlords or a single one? Our ancestors at the time of the Roman Empire choose the latter arrangement. I am not sure myself, but I think the world moves in a certain direction. And, yes, Toynbee brilliantly describes these phenomena. An author to be carefully read and understood.
If I understand your question as "would totalitarian China be worse for world peace than the US?" I would have to answer that neither I nor anyone else knows. I can guess that living under a Pax Sinica would be life in an open air prison judging by the current state of affairs within Xi's domain. I think all empires; past, present, and future make life "interesting" for all but their own elite. To live under a flawed democracy rather than the arbitrary brutality of a dictatorship would certainly be my preference. I guess Nair's thoughts are just a new version of the age old theory that a benevolent despot or enlightened monarch is the best form of government. Maybe, but one has never existed.
You have created a false dichotomy and landed on status quo as better than the straw alternative of global Chinese Dominion. Not sure if that was careless bad logic or intentionally manipulative. There is a lot of the latter going on lately.
I was responding to Ugo Bardi's specific mention of China originally and then your specific mention of the US so I really don't see "careless bad logic" nor a "false dichotomy" or intentional manipulation. If there is any I humbly apologize and hope you'll be able to move on.
Hello Ugo. The big questions on the charts are not the dates when the peaks occur, but the steep slope down afterwards. We often aren't sure about a peak half a century later.
The big drivers ( population, resources ) both seem to be dropping a bit earlier than expected ... while technology is perhaps also "flattening the curves" if that phrase sounds familiar.
However, nothing uses up resources and generates pollution like a couple major wars simultaneously.
"Steepening the slope" perhaps 🤔?
I was recently unable to find your old "exterminations" series of essays on blogger, and I doubt that you took them down, so that's also suspicious to me.
Great article. It's also interesting to look at Oswald Spengler's explanation for the decline of the West. According to him its not so much the material factors, but rather the immaterial ones that lead to the decline of a civilization. One important factor for the downfall of a civilization according to Spengler is the loss of a coherent world view and purpose in a civilization. That is certainly something we see at work today.
Yes, my interpretation is very different. The way I see it, the factors mentioned by Spengler are a result, not a cause.
If Mr Nair thinks a Chinese style of authoritarian dictatorship is the answer then I am totally puzzled. China's environmental record is abysmal and its aggression in the surrounding shipping lanes (forcefully seizing Philippine and Vietnamese areas) hardly bodes well for world peace. I was just reading today that two of their largest pharmaceutical companies are still using endangered species body parts in their concoctions despite promises to stop. I think Toynbee's A Study of History predicts an era of local warlords next; I think I might prefer that to the tender ministrations of Mr Xi Jinping and his ilk.
Good point: is it better to have many warlords or a single one? Our ancestors at the time of the Roman Empire choose the latter arrangement. I am not sure myself, but I think the world moves in a certain direction. And, yes, Toynbee brilliantly describes these phenomena. An author to be carefully read and understood.
Is it possible to be worse for world peace than with the US?
If I understand your question as "would totalitarian China be worse for world peace than the US?" I would have to answer that neither I nor anyone else knows. I can guess that living under a Pax Sinica would be life in an open air prison judging by the current state of affairs within Xi's domain. I think all empires; past, present, and future make life "interesting" for all but their own elite. To live under a flawed democracy rather than the arbitrary brutality of a dictatorship would certainly be my preference. I guess Nair's thoughts are just a new version of the age old theory that a benevolent despot or enlightened monarch is the best form of government. Maybe, but one has never existed.
You have created a false dichotomy and landed on status quo as better than the straw alternative of global Chinese Dominion. Not sure if that was careless bad logic or intentionally manipulative. There is a lot of the latter going on lately.
I was responding to Ugo Bardi's specific mention of China originally and then your specific mention of the US so I really don't see "careless bad logic" nor a "false dichotomy" or intentional manipulation. If there is any I humbly apologize and hope you'll be able to move on.
Hello Ugo. The big questions on the charts are not the dates when the peaks occur, but the steep slope down afterwards. We often aren't sure about a peak half a century later.
The big drivers ( population, resources ) both seem to be dropping a bit earlier than expected ... while technology is perhaps also "flattening the curves" if that phrase sounds familiar.
However, nothing uses up resources and generates pollution like a couple major wars simultaneously.
"Steepening the slope" perhaps 🤔?
I was recently unable to find your old "exterminations" series of essays on blogger, and I doubt that you took them down, so that's also suspicious to me.
They are still there in my old "senecaeffect" site at senecaeffect.com. This is the #1 of the series. https://www.senecaeffect.com/2021/09/the-age-of-exterminations-who-will-be.html. I am planning to repost them on substack one of these days.
Thanks and bookmarked. Back them up somewhere beside Blogger. Soon. ArtDeco
Good idea...