In the 1920s - 1930s, the initial 'popular' success of police-state regimes in Europe seems to have been predicated on government adopting monetary practice (public investment) in contrast to the existing (failed) international monetary system. Even the USA temporarily adopted some ‘socialist’ features, including the successful command economy in WWII. But, as LTG correctly assumes, (thank you Club of Rome), it is a different and much bigger 'energy world' now. How long will Argentina sustain an economy? Perhaps Milet is taking a wild bet on Malvinas oil?
We still do not have the answer to the question I asked Nate Hagens almost 10 years ago. When will global ‘growth’ of GDP peak? China has injected a large energy increment into the global economy with their vast coal expansion for electrification and the USA fracking has maintained growth of global petroleum energy.
Interestingly, the USA has it seems the most costly per capita health sector in the world. Despite the huge GDP, their relatively poor and declining national health / life expectancy appears due largely to cultural / historical factors: a divided nation coupled with notoriously poor nutrition etc. Eastern Europe including Russia might be recovering from a dire health legacy and collapsed economy, and might at some point gain for a while a more stable base?
I wonder then if the USA will turn out to be the prime indicator of the inflection moment for this Industrial Age, something a great deal bigger than a first ‘canary in the coal mine’.
Thanks for the great post--I really enjoyed this one, as it took my thoughts in many different directions.
Regarding Millei, it's sad to see that he's not working out. The long-suffering Argentines really need help; I really can't blame them much at this point for just hoping that any kind of change might be for the better. A member of my extended family went to Argentina last year on vacation, and some of her stories about how desperate some of the ordinary people are getting were really tearjerkers. I really don't know how some of them manage under the extraordinary conditions they are forced to deal with in everyday life.
But you know well, you said in some of your other writings, that there are, in fact, "solutions to a crisis that depends largely on events such as the formation of the oil wells during the Jurassic period". These solutions are, among other things, lithium mining. And Milei is (if not removed from his post for 220% inflation expected this year) likely to deregulate mining.
When Milei was elected my first thought was: "These Argentinians just don't know what they did. The extreme libertarian economic policies will just ruin them faster without solving any of the problems they have." But people are that desperate and not only in Argentina but here in Serbia too. Only in Serbia people understand that huge changes are usually destructive and they rather tolerate existing evil in hope that status quo will last as long as possible.
Ugo, this is bs. The private companies are growing steadily, they hover over States (yearly turnover vs GDP), it is them that want to take down welfare provisions so that everything, especially education and healthcare and our bodies (particularly female sex and reproductive capacities), can become a market. It is called capitalism, these policies were decided 20 years ago at the WTO
What if you live in a corner of your zone, and can only go in two directions, while someone in the center of their zone will have access to twice as many resources?
I thought Ugo Bardi was a scientist. I don't understand his petulant crossness with an individual (however boorish or extreme) who he himself has labeled a "slave of history".
When a "slave of history" slashes budgets, Ugo says he is "nasty", while "typical supporters of degrowth" would apparently allow for slashing budgets "gently".
Gentle degrowth would not slash budgets. Ever. At all.
All the DEI ministers would get a raise, in fact.
---
Ten years ago or so, I was talking degrowth with some acquaintances, and I said to deal with it I would be a "kinder, gentler, Pol Pot". But there really is no way of being a kinder, gentler Pol Pot. People will be faced with a decline of material well-being and will dislike it. Any government that steps in and tries to direct the decline in the "best" way, whatever way that is, is going to be criticized.
The ultimate "best" way to decline, as we increasingly see, is where vampiric entities increasingly make bank (Tony Blair a good recent example) while blocking all exits for the rank and file. That is how it will actually play out. Milei was installed to bolster Israeli banksters (austerity for thee, but not for me) and to avoid Argentina's joining BRICS. Mission accomplished, and he got the golden menorah bestowed upon him by Zelensky to seal the deal.
While I love the idea of living in a walkable town plan - and promote New Urbanism for a variety of great reasons - I'm not sure it's from any lack of materials or ability to maintain the modern suburban world? (Oooh that hurt to type - because even though I live in it there's so much about tacky Australian suburbia that I dislike.) That is - I'm close to accepting that along with the Energy Transition we are about to see an equivalently powerful materials transition as the Industrial Ecosystem evolves.
I'll go over a few details but I'm NOT a Techno-Utopian - but more of a Bright Green Ecomodernist type (except now embracing renewables) that hopes we'll see the "Demographic Decoupling" of society as we meet all human needs through a saner, cleaner Industrial Ecosystem. I'm not sure what other parts are required - and why you are still calling yourself a Degrowther? I'm enjoying the Club of Rome podcast and there is SO much there I agree with. But I'm not ready to embrace the Degrowth term yet - because I see us as needing 'Clean growth' for a little while - until that Demographic Transition kicks in. (I'm going to be slowly, thoughtfully reading all the Earth4All documents over the next few months.)
But as for me being "Bright Green" - that is - hoping for a cleaner Industrial Ecosystem. The EROEI of renewables is fine. I think you covered some of this very briefly in your debate with Dennis Meadows about Simon Michaux. But the EROEI arguments from even Graham Turner's paper were based on REALLY old papers. Things are changing so fast 5 years is a really long time in the energy transition. The papers Turner quoted are 12 to 13 years old now. David Murphy has since completely turned around the whole study of EROEI. Everything's changed. Consider how back in the 2000's solar cells required 3 TIMES the high-energy silicon they do today - and yet somehow the materials magicians get 22% efficiency today! Less material, more energy - sometimes with a much longer life as well!
Quoting old EROEI studies is a crime worthy of Weissbach himself! He published in 2013, but referred to solar EROEI's from 2005 IN GERMANY which is outside of the Sunshine Belt! What IS it with renewable sceptics cherry-picking Germany when 3/4 of the human race live between the 35 parallels north and south and have AMPLE solar at 29% capacity factor? Graphic of belt here. https://eclipsenow.wordpress.com/overbuild/
Selecting Germany as representing GLOBAL solar or renewables generally is cherry-picking worthy of Simon Michaux! Indeed - with HVDC lines now sending power with only a 1.6% loss - we could send power from the equator to the poles with only a 16% loss. Powering Europe is not a problem trading clean northern wind with clean southern solar.
But I note from your conversation with Dennis Meadows you're not convinced by Simon Michaux? You seemed to be saying all the right things. And now that big industry have caught on to the fact that they can Electrify Everything in mining and smelting etc, and run their own renewables decoupled from the global energy crisis, we'll end up in a vastly more efficient civilisation that only requires 40% of the original thermal value of the fossil fuels.
In a similar way - architects and engineers are looking at how to create greener building materials across the industry. From more efficient less carbon intensive concrete to new ways to build with old materials - like CLT allowing timber skyscrapers for the first time in human history. Wood seems to be inspiring a ready-made modular building code - prefab buildings that can go up with vastly less labour in faster time - storing carbon for a century or so. https://eclipsenow.wordpress.com/tall-timbers/
Food has huge innovations coming - like Precision Fermentation which bypasses inefficient 6% photosynthesis of crops requiring fertiliser and water and worst of all, arable land - for solar panels at 22% efficiency that split water and feed hydrogen and minerals to bacteria that produce all the fats and proteins and carbs we want. Google "Solein" for more.
Or - even if that doesn't arrive on time - SEAWEED FARMS COULD FEED THE WORLD WHILE SAVING THE OCEANS! Dr David King was the chief scientific adviser to the UK government, and Dr Tim Flannery held the same position down in Australia. Both have done lots of work on this.
JUST 2% OF THE OCEANS COULD FEED 12 BILLION PEOPLE while repairing the oceans.
The dried seaweed protein yield per area (in the ocean) is 2.5 to 7.5 times higher than wheat or legumes (on land). https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7221823/ They also grow shellfish like oysters, scallops, and muscles in baskets under the seaweed lines.
SO MY QUESTION IS - why the Hobbit village image - as much as I love Tolkien? While I almost long for a reason to believe suburbia is destined to collapse back to more urban forms - with the arrival of the EV and new building materials - I'm not sure it is inevitable. I think New Urbanism in more European public-transport cities is more preferable and sane to Australian and American suburbia. Your thoughts? After climate change - what is the most urgent limit?
Climate change is most definitely a fraud as shown by every legitimate measurement of global tem;peratures...It has been much warmer several times in the near past..In the US, 1936 remains the hottest year on record...I'm not sure what your point is about Milei..Elimating 12 of 21 bureaucracies must be very positive...Renewables have never generated a positive ROE, and have proven to be just another scam fueled by debt..Healthcare in the US is far better than it is in Canada or the UK, where patients wait months just to see a doctor and don't get referred to specialists until too late..Last I saw, 5 year cancer survival rate was 43% for those National Health countries, and more than 70% in the US...Finally, I don't think humanity has to worry about survival...It did just fine before fossil fuels became a primary source of energy....
So, the way to keep the system alive and not too nasty is to feed it with cheap energy, and that means we have to grow the production of renewable energy. It is unlikely that it can avoid decline, but it can make it less steep and less unhappy.
You don't think that this makes the problem worse? 'Renewable' energy and EVs are put forward as solutions - yet they just add costs to a system that is already reeling due to high cost inputs
.
Thanks Ugo.
In the 1920s - 1930s, the initial 'popular' success of police-state regimes in Europe seems to have been predicated on government adopting monetary practice (public investment) in contrast to the existing (failed) international monetary system. Even the USA temporarily adopted some ‘socialist’ features, including the successful command economy in WWII. But, as LTG correctly assumes, (thank you Club of Rome), it is a different and much bigger 'energy world' now. How long will Argentina sustain an economy? Perhaps Milet is taking a wild bet on Malvinas oil?
We still do not have the answer to the question I asked Nate Hagens almost 10 years ago. When will global ‘growth’ of GDP peak? China has injected a large energy increment into the global economy with their vast coal expansion for electrification and the USA fracking has maintained growth of global petroleum energy.
Interestingly, the USA has it seems the most costly per capita health sector in the world. Despite the huge GDP, their relatively poor and declining national health / life expectancy appears due largely to cultural / historical factors: a divided nation coupled with notoriously poor nutrition etc. Eastern Europe including Russia might be recovering from a dire health legacy and collapsed economy, and might at some point gain for a while a more stable base?
I wonder then if the USA will turn out to be the prime indicator of the inflection moment for this Industrial Age, something a great deal bigger than a first ‘canary in the coal mine’.
Thanks for the great post--I really enjoyed this one, as it took my thoughts in many different directions.
Regarding Millei, it's sad to see that he's not working out. The long-suffering Argentines really need help; I really can't blame them much at this point for just hoping that any kind of change might be for the better. A member of my extended family went to Argentina last year on vacation, and some of her stories about how desperate some of the ordinary people are getting were really tearjerkers. I really don't know how some of them manage under the extraordinary conditions they are forced to deal with in everyday life.
But you know well, you said in some of your other writings, that there are, in fact, "solutions to a crisis that depends largely on events such as the formation of the oil wells during the Jurassic period". These solutions are, among other things, lithium mining. And Milei is (if not removed from his post for 220% inflation expected this year) likely to deregulate mining.
https://www.themercury.com.au/business/stockhead/asx-lithium-stocks-riding-argentinas-new-wave/news-story/77f7d138ff805e138df9becd0009a0d2
https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/society-equity/society-watch-across-globe-indigenous-rights-are-being-trampled-lithium-goldrush-2024-01-02/
There is more future before capitalism (if the peronist model is replaced) in Argentina than you think, just look at their, indeed, resources.
When Milei was elected my first thought was: "These Argentinians just don't know what they did. The extreme libertarian economic policies will just ruin them faster without solving any of the problems they have." But people are that desperate and not only in Argentina but here in Serbia too. Only in Serbia people understand that huge changes are usually destructive and they rather tolerate existing evil in hope that status quo will last as long as possible.
Ugo, this is bs. The private companies are growing steadily, they hover over States (yearly turnover vs GDP), it is them that want to take down welfare provisions so that everything, especially education and healthcare and our bodies (particularly female sex and reproductive capacities), can become a market. It is called capitalism, these policies were decided 20 years ago at the WTO
Still waiting for that Seneca Effect with US natural gas:
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9050us2m.htm
15-minute cities: kinder, gentler...?
https://twitter.com/iluminatibot/status/1743120191301558300
What if you live in a corner of your zone, and can only go in two directions, while someone in the center of their zone will have access to twice as many resources?
The well-to-do will just pay the sodding fines.
"it won't solve any problem"
Ugo, for decades you've been publicizing a problem with no solution.
What is the point of this sort of accusation?
I guess it is only human to get sucked into the daily grind of politics-as-usual...
I thought Ugo Bardi was a scientist. I don't understand his petulant crossness with an individual (however boorish or extreme) who he himself has labeled a "slave of history".
When a "slave of history" slashes budgets, Ugo says he is "nasty", while "typical supporters of degrowth" would apparently allow for slashing budgets "gently".
Gentle degrowth would not slash budgets. Ever. At all.
All the DEI ministers would get a raise, in fact.
---
Ten years ago or so, I was talking degrowth with some acquaintances, and I said to deal with it I would be a "kinder, gentler, Pol Pot". But there really is no way of being a kinder, gentler Pol Pot. People will be faced with a decline of material well-being and will dislike it. Any government that steps in and tries to direct the decline in the "best" way, whatever way that is, is going to be criticized.
The ultimate "best" way to decline, as we increasingly see, is where vampiric entities increasingly make bank (Tony Blair a good recent example) while blocking all exits for the rank and file. That is how it will actually play out. Milei was installed to bolster Israeli banksters (austerity for thee, but not for me) and to avoid Argentina's joining BRICS. Mission accomplished, and he got the golden menorah bestowed upon him by Zelensky to seal the deal.
Hi Ugo,
While I love the idea of living in a walkable town plan - and promote New Urbanism for a variety of great reasons - I'm not sure it's from any lack of materials or ability to maintain the modern suburban world? (Oooh that hurt to type - because even though I live in it there's so much about tacky Australian suburbia that I dislike.) That is - I'm close to accepting that along with the Energy Transition we are about to see an equivalently powerful materials transition as the Industrial Ecosystem evolves.
I'll go over a few details but I'm NOT a Techno-Utopian - but more of a Bright Green Ecomodernist type (except now embracing renewables) that hopes we'll see the "Demographic Decoupling" of society as we meet all human needs through a saner, cleaner Industrial Ecosystem. I'm not sure what other parts are required - and why you are still calling yourself a Degrowther? I'm enjoying the Club of Rome podcast and there is SO much there I agree with. But I'm not ready to embrace the Degrowth term yet - because I see us as needing 'Clean growth' for a little while - until that Demographic Transition kicks in. (I'm going to be slowly, thoughtfully reading all the Earth4All documents over the next few months.)
But as for me being "Bright Green" - that is - hoping for a cleaner Industrial Ecosystem. The EROEI of renewables is fine. I think you covered some of this very briefly in your debate with Dennis Meadows about Simon Michaux. But the EROEI arguments from even Graham Turner's paper were based on REALLY old papers. Things are changing so fast 5 years is a really long time in the energy transition. The papers Turner quoted are 12 to 13 years old now. David Murphy has since completely turned around the whole study of EROEI. Everything's changed. Consider how back in the 2000's solar cells required 3 TIMES the high-energy silicon they do today - and yet somehow the materials magicians get 22% efficiency today! Less material, more energy - sometimes with a much longer life as well!
Some brands get 40 years of solar with EROEI over 100! https://eclipsenow.wordpress.com/2023/05/31/maxeon-solar-eroei-over-100-across-40-year-warranty-period/
Quoting old EROEI studies is a crime worthy of Weissbach himself! He published in 2013, but referred to solar EROEI's from 2005 IN GERMANY which is outside of the Sunshine Belt! What IS it with renewable sceptics cherry-picking Germany when 3/4 of the human race live between the 35 parallels north and south and have AMPLE solar at 29% capacity factor? Graphic of belt here. https://eclipsenow.wordpress.com/overbuild/
Selecting Germany as representing GLOBAL solar or renewables generally is cherry-picking worthy of Simon Michaux! Indeed - with HVDC lines now sending power with only a 1.6% loss - we could send power from the equator to the poles with only a 16% loss. Powering Europe is not a problem trading clean northern wind with clean southern solar.
But I note from your conversation with Dennis Meadows you're not convinced by Simon Michaux? You seemed to be saying all the right things. And now that big industry have caught on to the fact that they can Electrify Everything in mining and smelting etc, and run their own renewables decoupled from the global energy crisis, we'll end up in a vastly more efficient civilisation that only requires 40% of the original thermal value of the fossil fuels.
https://www.sustainabilitybynumbers.com/p/electrification-energy-efficiency
Australia’s industrial giants are sick of the global energy crisis and high gas prices. Big names like BHP, Bluescope steel, etc, worth a full third of our entire stock-market, have a plan to Electrify Everything https://energytransitionsinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Pathways-to-Industrial-Decarbonisation-report-Updated-August-2023-Australian-Industry-ETI.pdf
In a similar way - architects and engineers are looking at how to create greener building materials across the industry. From more efficient less carbon intensive concrete to new ways to build with old materials - like CLT allowing timber skyscrapers for the first time in human history. Wood seems to be inspiring a ready-made modular building code - prefab buildings that can go up with vastly less labour in faster time - storing carbon for a century or so. https://eclipsenow.wordpress.com/tall-timbers/
Food has huge innovations coming - like Precision Fermentation which bypasses inefficient 6% photosynthesis of crops requiring fertiliser and water and worst of all, arable land - for solar panels at 22% efficiency that split water and feed hydrogen and minerals to bacteria that produce all the fats and proteins and carbs we want. Google "Solein" for more.
Or - even if that doesn't arrive on time - SEAWEED FARMS COULD FEED THE WORLD WHILE SAVING THE OCEANS! Dr David King was the chief scientific adviser to the UK government, and Dr Tim Flannery held the same position down in Australia. Both have done lots of work on this.
JUST 2% OF THE OCEANS COULD FEED 12 BILLION PEOPLE while repairing the oceans.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/jun/01/sea-forest-better-name-seaweed-un-food-adviser
The seaweed powder can be a food supplement that goes in everything from dairy to bread. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666833522000302
The dried seaweed protein yield per area (in the ocean) is 2.5 to 7.5 times higher than wheat or legumes (on land). https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7221823/ They also grow shellfish like oysters, scallops, and muscles in baskets under the seaweed lines.
SO MY QUESTION IS - why the Hobbit village image - as much as I love Tolkien? While I almost long for a reason to believe suburbia is destined to collapse back to more urban forms - with the arrival of the EV and new building materials - I'm not sure it is inevitable. I think New Urbanism in more European public-transport cities is more preferable and sane to Australian and American suburbia. Your thoughts? After climate change - what is the most urgent limit?
Climate change is most definitely a fraud as shown by every legitimate measurement of global tem;peratures...It has been much warmer several times in the near past..In the US, 1936 remains the hottest year on record...I'm not sure what your point is about Milei..Elimating 12 of 21 bureaucracies must be very positive...Renewables have never generated a positive ROE, and have proven to be just another scam fueled by debt..Healthcare in the US is far better than it is in Canada or the UK, where patients wait months just to see a doctor and don't get referred to specialists until too late..Last I saw, 5 year cancer survival rate was 43% for those National Health countries, and more than 70% in the US...Finally, I don't think humanity has to worry about survival...It did just fine before fossil fuels became a primary source of energy....
So, the way to keep the system alive and not too nasty is to feed it with cheap energy, and that means we have to grow the production of renewable energy. It is unlikely that it can avoid decline, but it can make it less steep and less unhappy.
You don't think that this makes the problem worse? 'Renewable' energy and EVs are put forward as solutions - yet they just add costs to a system that is already reeling due to high cost inputs