Perhaps the reactions to "Limits to Growth" is simply humanity going through the 5 stages of grief. Each person reacts on an individual level, so it's difficult to speak of society as a unified whole, but I think it's safe to say that we have been through Denial and Anger, and are now somewhere between Bargaining and Depression.
If we ask the question, “What if we massively deploy renewable energy?” a new set of calculations may falsify a prediction that never was one. But Randers and others conclude that warming and self-sustained thawing of permafrost will continue even if all man-made GHG emissions would stop now: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-75481-z
If we have a 65-year old patient of 140kg with uncontrolled diabetes, diabetic retinopathy, diabetic kidney disease, urinary infection, high blood pressure, vertigo, a former myocardial infarction, atrial fibrillation and angina pectoris, varicosis, prostate carcinoma, coxarthrosis and gonarthrosis on both sides, its not rocket science to predict that his activity and lifespan will be rather limited, although an experienced physician will never give a precise estimation.
If I look at runaway global warming fed by multiple nefarious feedbacks, looking at the likewise threatening global water situation, the rising sea levels, the galloping extinction of species (and reduction of genetic diversity within species), the shrinking food base, the overcrowding which will produce epidemics more lethal than COVID and last but not least at the rapacious nature of mankind I have a rater similar feeling as before the above-mentioned patient.
I consider Gaza, Jemen, Sudan, Eritrea, Mali, Myanmar, Ukraine, Haiti and the increasing war talk in Europe and East-Asia as the beginning breakdown of the liberal and democratic achievements of the enlightenment. Moreover, it feels safe to predict that human thriving will be severely curtailed during this century and even during the next few decades, although I consider it foolish to fix a McPherson-like timing. In a best-case scenario the population will be reduced by half. This will be aided by declining sperm-count and the rest will not be nice.
So, it will not be catastrophe OR rebirth, but catastrophe AND in any case some rebirth, which could start with surviving humans or surviving rats, or even with the heat resistant microorganisms thriving in boiling volcanic waters.
The public discussion circles about if and how there will be a catastrophe and how it is to be prevented. This is similar to discussing "healing" in the above patient. In medicine and in life there comes a moment where there is no sense in such discussions and when it is time to face the catastrophe and the end and to face it with dignity. This could and should also be a theme for discussion.
There needs to be a redo of the Limits to Growth as an open source project. A website will document how the models work for all to see. Everything indexed so a person can understand how to build and modify the model on their own machine. The software of the original project will be eclipsed in quality and depth by an open source project. Interested people should get in touch with me.
That link is to a post on my own website where interested people can introduce themselves. I have downloaded two texts that must be digested before I can write any of the software. In this post I also have a link to a video 'Brian Hayes explains World3 modeling' which I host on my own You Tube channel.
You think I was blowing smoke when I said "There needs to be a redo of the Limits to Growth as an open source project. " Oh contraire mon frère. I'm ready to get started. But not alone.
Honestly, Keith, I think that world modeling has now mostly exhausted its usefulness. It was a good idea 50 years ago. If we had taken heed at that time, we would live in a different world. Now we must navigate in the fog of the future and hope that there won't be too many half submerged rocks ahead.
One is reminded of Panarchy, and its loop through three-dimensional space of connectedness, resilience, and capacity — clearly a "renewalism" model.
And yet, one of the major tenets that Buzz Holling (et. al.) put into Panarchy is that the loop can repeat at greater or lesser levels. If the K-phase, dominated by K-selected species such as our own, damages carrying capacity — as we are arguably doing — then the next trip through the loop must be at a lower trophic level.
We've used up the "low hanging fruit" and a technological civilization may have to wait a few hundred million years for the Earth's "carbon battery" to build up another civilization.
"I think rapidly rising connectivity within global systems-both economic and technological-increases the risk of deep collapse. That’s a collapse that cascades across adaptive cycles-a kind of pancaking implosion of the entire system as higher-level adaptive cycles collapse, which causes progressive collapse at lower levels." — "Buzz" Holling
Perhaps the reactions to "Limits to Growth" is simply humanity going through the 5 stages of grief. Each person reacts on an individual level, so it's difficult to speak of society as a unified whole, but I think it's safe to say that we have been through Denial and Anger, and are now somewhere between Bargaining and Depression.
Agreed. And the bargaining-stage includes the consultation of charlatans. Trump comes to mind.
You write:
If we ask the question, “What if we massively deploy renewable energy?” a new set of calculations may falsify a prediction that never was one. But Randers and others conclude that warming and self-sustained thawing of permafrost will continue even if all man-made GHG emissions would stop now: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-75481-z
If we have a 65-year old patient of 140kg with uncontrolled diabetes, diabetic retinopathy, diabetic kidney disease, urinary infection, high blood pressure, vertigo, a former myocardial infarction, atrial fibrillation and angina pectoris, varicosis, prostate carcinoma, coxarthrosis and gonarthrosis on both sides, its not rocket science to predict that his activity and lifespan will be rather limited, although an experienced physician will never give a precise estimation.
If I look at runaway global warming fed by multiple nefarious feedbacks, looking at the likewise threatening global water situation, the rising sea levels, the galloping extinction of species (and reduction of genetic diversity within species), the shrinking food base, the overcrowding which will produce epidemics more lethal than COVID and last but not least at the rapacious nature of mankind I have a rater similar feeling as before the above-mentioned patient.
I consider Gaza, Jemen, Sudan, Eritrea, Mali, Myanmar, Ukraine, Haiti and the increasing war talk in Europe and East-Asia as the beginning breakdown of the liberal and democratic achievements of the enlightenment. Moreover, it feels safe to predict that human thriving will be severely curtailed during this century and even during the next few decades, although I consider it foolish to fix a McPherson-like timing. In a best-case scenario the population will be reduced by half. This will be aided by declining sperm-count and the rest will not be nice.
So, it will not be catastrophe OR rebirth, but catastrophe AND in any case some rebirth, which could start with surviving humans or surviving rats, or even with the heat resistant microorganisms thriving in boiling volcanic waters.
The public discussion circles about if and how there will be a catastrophe and how it is to be prevented. This is similar to discussing "healing" in the above patient. In medicine and in life there comes a moment where there is no sense in such discussions and when it is time to face the catastrophe and the end and to face it with dignity. This could and should also be a theme for discussion.
There needs to be a redo of the Limits to Growth as an open source project. A website will document how the models work for all to see. Everything indexed so a person can understand how to build and modify the model on their own machine. The software of the original project will be eclipsed in quality and depth by an open source project. Interested people should get in touch with me.
I am learning how to build a model from Forrester's Books. In chapter 15 of Industrial Dynamics now. Wish you were here.
https://chasingthesquirrel.com/doomstead/index.php?topic=297.msg2291#msg2291
That link is to a post on my own website where interested people can introduce themselves. I have downloaded two texts that must be digested before I can write any of the software. In this post I also have a link to a video 'Brian Hayes explains World3 modeling' which I host on my own You Tube channel.
You think I was blowing smoke when I said "There needs to be a redo of the Limits to Growth as an open source project. " Oh contraire mon frère. I'm ready to get started. But not alone.
Honestly, Keith, I think that world modeling has now mostly exhausted its usefulness. It was a good idea 50 years ago. If we had taken heed at that time, we would live in a different world. Now we must navigate in the fog of the future and hope that there won't be too many half submerged rocks ahead.
One is reminded of Panarchy, and its loop through three-dimensional space of connectedness, resilience, and capacity — clearly a "renewalism" model.
And yet, one of the major tenets that Buzz Holling (et. al.) put into Panarchy is that the loop can repeat at greater or lesser levels. If the K-phase, dominated by K-selected species such as our own, damages carrying capacity — as we are arguably doing — then the next trip through the loop must be at a lower trophic level.
We've used up the "low hanging fruit" and a technological civilization may have to wait a few hundred million years for the Earth's "carbon battery" to build up another civilization.
"I think rapidly rising connectivity within global systems-both economic and technological-increases the risk of deep collapse. That’s a collapse that cascades across adaptive cycles-a kind of pancaking implosion of the entire system as higher-level adaptive cycles collapse, which causes progressive collapse at lower levels." — "Buzz" Holling