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Plato's "Noble Lie" is now called control-narratives.

Having to reduce CO2 is PR for peak-fossil-fuels-and-everything-else.

Limits To Growth is still tracking well, and peak oil+liquids, as well as peak global economy, appear to have happened at the end of 2018.

"You Are Here", as the sign says... http://www.fraw.org.uk/blog/reviews/001/index.shtml

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💯

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I'm for speech freedom but for climate denial, enquiries showed that professional press agencies spread rumors. Besides, the official climate change version of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel) is as you would expect from our governments. I share some better climate news on LinkedIn: Here Johan Rockström on August 15th: global warming accelerates, we could reach 2°C in 20 years if we don't act, and the risk of tipping points increases (such as death of Amazonia which would suddenly increase Earth temperature of some tenths of degrees). He mentions among others 38 trillions dollars losses in 2050. He demands that we immediately act for the climate and for biodiversity. Solutions are energy transition, circular economy, sustainable food system. https://lnkd.in/gx9qihhH

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Fully agree. While according to "correct politics" the Russian Federation was classified under "climate denying states", Siberians know better, facing "pingos", the effect of methane release from the warming permafrost. For Alaskans the same issue is valid, entire structures collapsing due to melting permafrost. But "the empire" is warring for hegemony, wars run on human meat and oil and with catastrophic effects for the environment: the US army is the world's greatest polluter.

In a civilization based on science instead of racketeering, the issue would have been "how to maintain a stable climate for our civilization?"

BTW before Facebook became AI censored, "Siberian Times" mentioned there even is Russian site, similar to this:

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/

and in that era Putin even promised to cooperate with a climate plan, although he didn't believe a warming climate was a problem for the Russian Federation.

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At a time when so many are actually advocating in favor of censorship because they believe it favors their pet cause/issue, I appreciate your principled stand arguing against it even when you know that it favors your own position.

When the suppression of alternative viewpoints and widely known news items becomes obvious, and information one knows to be intentionally misleading is widely broadcast, trust in authority is obviously eroded. The would-be masters of the world don't seem to understand this, and simply grow more frustrated as more and more people tune them out. This year's World Economic Forum theme was "Restoring Trust", but attendees seem truly baffled about how they lost it.

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We can call it a "transition effect" but was analyzed by W. Reich with the book "The Mass Psychology of Fascism" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Mass_Psychology_of_Fascism).

Not only in science but in every aspect of society we are seeing a wave of extreme polarization, the extremization of the psychological impulse to find an enemy to try to find a self identity!

For court a sicken idea of "business" we had used all the toolbox of Psyop to create a more fit human adapted to be an impulsive consumer without considering side effects: atomization of relationship, lack of self-control, shrinking of rational evaluation but more important the identification of the self with what we have. It is a viable choice if it is possible to assure an ever expanding flow of new material goods to fill the self-image, but if the flow slows down appear a strain at the core level of self identity that is vital to the individual to compensate. Because on the subconscious level it is a fight for life, a lot of humans unconsciously accept any compromise to keep the flow of goods increasing, on individual level is the lack of moral or ethical limits (explosion of sociopathy and psychopathy as favored traits for management offices) and on social group level is a drive to extreme aggression at any viable level (usually no immediate self-destructive actions).

Sects are a good exemple of extreme polarization because usually are a net cost to the individual but "pay" giving a form of "self identity"! Censorship of different opinion is quite in the mood of polarization, sects usually ban to members some kind of information to keep cohesion using both direct removal (ex. burning of books by Nazi) or by shaming (sinful concept), as we can understand to the sects as "composed entity" this information is a treat to the core of it's "self", a kind of mortal poison.

The limit of an expanding good's viability is the trigger, the new self-image of human as customer is the primer and the polarization is the gunpowder, the bullet that is fired is an aggression war to humankind.... suicide.

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According to this logic, gravity isn't real since we don't have a full and complete picture of it. It is 10F above average in October for heaven's sake and wildfires and droughts continue. Give the Flat Earthers equal time on search results. Sheesh

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Toward a General Theory of Societal Collapse. A Biophysical Examination of Tainter’s Model

of the Diminishing Returns of Complexity

Hello Ugo, my name is William Treusch, the author of the Grand Theory of Societal Advancement, which is designed to meet the new complexity and needs of living in the Anthropocene. Your (You, Sara Falsini and Ilaria Perissi's) work has been a key to the success of creating the civilization upgrade concept. Specifically, the concept of creating a network of multi-function nodes and adding an exterior force with the "desire" to maintain a healthy network with a resilient risk analysis system or as Arnold Toynbee called it an engaged "challenge and response system" all while addressing Joseph Tainter's limitations of each of these nodes/people. Your work was complemented by many other key contributors

i. Arnold Toynbee – Theory of History

ii. Isaac Asimov – Foundation and Robot Series

iii. King Charles III – Guidance and messaging.

iv. Kate RaWorth – How to run the 21st century economy

v. John Nash – Common point of equity

vi. Joseph Tainter – Resilient Complexity

vii. Ugo Bardi – Multi function node network

viii. Satoshi Nakamoto – Proof of Work concept

ix. Donald Hoffman – Interpreting reality

x. Edward Gibbons – Rise and fall of the roman Empire

xi. McNeill – History of human health

xii. John Q. McGinnis – Living in the Age of Acceleration

xiii. Ian Morris – Establishing the rate of change

An overview: Civilization Upgrade.org

We are a budding NGO dedicated to finalizing, testing, and building the results of the Grand Theory of Societal Advancement (GTSA) to update and improve the systems of civilization. The 21st century has been a time of growing crisis. The ravages of climate change have arrived earlier, rougher, and costlier than predicted. Artificial Intelligence has passed the Turing test, and we have not prepared. The systems that support civilized life are breaking down. The GTSA represents an upgrade to how we live, work, and play, that protects our sovereignty and offers the lowest cost of change. It is how we should prosper in the 21st century.

________________________________________

Vision Statement

"Our vision is to pioneer the emergence of a next-generation society—Version 2.0—built on the foundation of human capabilities, responsibilities, and the challenges and opportunities of our time. We envision a society where sustainable practices are integrated into every aspect of life, where economic prosperity is equitable and inclusive, and where cognitive potential is enhanced to unlock new frontiers of human intelligence. By embracing the interconnectedness of social, economic, and environmental well-being, we strive to create a future where human rights violations are minimized, racial and gender equity are celebrated, and the potential of artificial intelligence and extraterrestrial intelligence is harnessed for the betterment of humanity. With a steadfast commitment to high standards and constant evolution, we aim to shape a society that inspires admiration and serves as a beacon of progress for generations to come."

________________________________________

Mission Statement

"Our mission is to launch a comprehensive social, economic, environmental, and cognitive upgrade—ushering humanity into a new era of progress and potential. Through innovative solutions and transformative initiatives, we strive to create a society that embraces sustainable practices, fosters equitable opportunities, and enhances cognitive capabilities. By aligning the health of the planet with the well-being of society, we aim to reduce human rights violations, promote racial and gender equity, and prepare for the challenges and opportunities of artificial intelligence and extraterrestrial intelligence. With high standards and a commitment to continuous improvement, we aspire to build a next-generation society that we proudly champion and that sets the stage for a better world."

Current Initiatives

• Finish and professionalize Publishing

• Begin Awareness Campaign

• Begin Verification process

• Create a Museum Style walk-through Diorama of the Theory

Prelude

Today’s Crisis situation is not a surprise, in fact it was predicted more than 50 years ago.

A Fictional Recreation

Isaac Asimov was inspired to write his Foundation series after reading Edward Gibbon's The History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire. Asimov combined this with insights from Arnold J. Toynbee's A Study of History to create a science fiction narrative that explores the rise and fall of a galactic empire, drawing parallels to historical cycles of civilization. Gibbon's detailed chronicle of the Roman Empire's decline provided a historical framework that Asimov reimagined on a grander, interstellar scale.

Grand Theory of Societal Advancement

 A comprehensive theory, a historic echo of our first version of civilization formed from the Neolithic package of upgrades. Comprised of specialized works from a broad spectrum of fields of study and independent researchers. The overarching goal of GTSA is to provide humanity with the necessary tools and systems for enhanced global cooperation, innovation, and unity, particularly in navigating the challenges of the 21st century and the Anthropocene era.

Sub-nodes

Key Aspects of GTSA:

1. Evolutionary Journey of Civilization:

a. Civilization 1.0: Marked by the stability and developments of the Neolithic Package, representing the dawn of structured human society.

b. The Industrial Age: Characterized by significant technological and industrial advancements.

c. The Great Acceleration: A period of rapid development with both benefits and challenges, marking a significant leap in human capability and impact.

d. Civilization 1.95: Defined by persistent crises, highlighting the need for a significant shift in societal management.

e. Civilization 2.0: The ultimate goal of GTSA, aiming for enhanced societal functioning and problem-solving.

2. Neogenesys package of Upgrades to Civilization 2.0. This set of proposed upgrades for modern society, draws parallels with the transformative impact of the Neolithic Package, aiming to improve quality of life and address contemporary global challenges.

a. Upgrades of Civilization 2.0, The Neogenesys package

i. Performance Upgrade - highest performing model of civilization yet

ii. Economic Upgrade - Creating the Hyper Economy

iii. Multi-Intelligence Upgrade - Living with AI and maybe ET

iv. Sustainability Upgrade - launches Flip the Planet

v. Resilience Upgrade - Ensuring a future for you and your children

vi. Agricultural Upgrade - Enhancing food production and security

3. Core Principles

i. No human has seen this level of change, complexity.

1. Changed faster than our ability to adapt, this has created a schism in society.

ii. We have entered the Anthropocene, which requires an adaptation to our model of civilization

iii. Requires recognition of new value systems and Earth's finite resources.

iv. Change required prior to 2030.

v. Earth is a distressed property.

vi. Age of Disruption

vii. No experience with multi-intelligence co-existence since the extinction of neanderthal’s.

4. Root Cause x

i. Cyclic Civilization – no civilization withstands the tests of time, ours has been failing for 80 years and is in an advanced state of decay or entropy. Isaac Asimov was inspired to write his Foundation series after reading Edward Gibbon's The History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire. Asimov combined this with insights from Arnold J. Toynbee's A Study of History to create a science fiction narrative that explores the rise and fall of a galactic empire, drawing parallels to historical cycles of civilization. Gibbon's detailed chronicle of the Roman Empire's decline provided a historical framework that Asimov reimagined on a grander, interstellar scale.

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author

Wow!!!!

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I am taking that as a complement - thank you. I am updating the Sub stack to be more organized. I have invented some crazy systems before, but this one is a bit larger than the others.

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Hi Bill, your ambition collapses me and I've gone into shock. But your influences are my influences (Tainter, Bardi, Asimov, Gibbon, Toynbee, Morris) so I will read you. One question: did you leave out Peter Turchin on purpose or don't you know him? If so, I recommend him.

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Peter Turchin is heavily referenced through my work, both in Cliodynamics and war as driver of societal upgrade. The original Club of Rome report suggested a strategy of personification of our enemies, that combined with war as a driver of change gives a new strategic avenue. Elizabeth Boulton forms our challenges as Hyperthreat, and Sim games have shown how we can become a distributed model, simplify complexity. I will update that list to reflect his influence.

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One thing further on Peter Turchin, I sincerely hope he takes a look at my work and helps with the research and development. That entire team has the experience and knowledge to vet what I am saying. I hope all of the experts expand and support, deny, or adjust my basic proposal.

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On a personal note, your Notebook, Mr. Lazarus sir - it has been a stable throughout my life and have given copies to those I mentor.

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How about a browser option:

[ ] Do you want to prioritize mainstream science?

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The human mind seems to repeat the same patterns endlessly. And we thought we were too smart for that to happen again. Ahh, so it goes.

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"And we thought we were too smart for that to happen again." We? Who is we?

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"The only way to find skeptic sites on the first page is to use “non-Google” search engines…"

Feeding Duck Duck Go "climate hoax" returned the Wikipedia page first, then at least a whole page of what seems to be bona-fide sites devoted to "the climate change conspiracy".

I stopped using Google years ago.

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Bravo. I've noticed that whenever I try to post about climate on Facebook, it is immediately tagged with a mainstrea, carbon-only message along with a link to "the science." It's not only annorying, it's insulting. Currently, our state's Commissioner of Public Lands race is leaning towards a candidate supported by logging companies who claims "the science" tells us we must cut our older, natural forests, "clean them up," lest they burn.

I'm not a scientist, and have more of an outside-looking-in perspective, but I agree with you. Science is in big trouble.

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I'll admit to needing to read your thought and this latest. But who has been winning on climate and economics this last 40-50 years?

US politics as an example has been like this for 200 years+ or at least since the Civil War and effective mass media. The internet only got going in the last 20 years and serious AI barely a few years ago. Can we distinguish the traditional 'scientific' shouting match from propaganda and advertising, or from simply poor science or more sinisterly, good science translated into social argument? Look what happened to Darwin! And there was and still is a lot to be thought about evolution. Even with his good start we have not got evolution 'right'. Science needs time! And there are always more questions.

I happened to think when I first read the stuff in Nature in the 80s that broadly climate science was good science and was beginning to tackle complexity with rigour. I did not expect too much from our civilisation but as it turned out I was still naive about the way it was going to be handled.

My main problem with science is how little time we have left. It still matters nevertheless in my view that the text books are written and updated. There is a thesis that appeals to me that we need ecological awareness and experience to be widely built into primary education, and that argument in the information sphere is best resolved in the old-fashioned way in text books which address matters in open fashion in modest undogmatic and least tendentious mode.

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Thanks Ugo.

This is very worrying and reinforces my skepticism towards AGW ideology.

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