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Max Rottersman's avatar

I've been doing a deep dive on fossil fuels and suggest you revisit. Indeed, I started a site, "DepletionCurve" based on that AND one of your essays (don't remember which).

My 2-cents is Bush, coming from Texas, did factor in peak oil. But it was more than that. If the U.S. didn't (and doesn't) control the Middle East Asia would have to. The Chinese was beginning a military buildup at the time which has come to fruition today. Recently, the rumor is they sent the latest in AD to Iran. They already have a military base in Djibouti, etc.

There's a lot going on there beyond the public eye. I agree with you AI is part of it. Especially if we include JADC2 (Joint All-Domain Command and Control) which has been in development for a while with F-35s, etc.

The truth is, if deep sea drilling technology did not develop. If the fields weren't exploited in Alaska, if fracking tech wasn't perfected after 2008 peak oil would have been felt. I believe we are again at peak oil. Indeed, I believe it is behind the Seneca Curve you write about (downward slope)

Bush saw what you saw. His timing was off. No one gets the timing right. Anyway, I don't believe Iraq turned out badly in that perspective (though I disagree with it). Well, I could go on and on. My main point when do YOU believe peak oil will happen (or has happened). I think it very important everyone have an opinion. Mine is around 2018. It's complicated, of course.

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Jan Barendrecht's avatar

Due to the SMO in Ukraine and war by Israel on all neighbors, the US / NATO is lacking ammo. This might have been a reason for Trump to use only a few bunker busters on Iran.

The peak oil issue is interesting as every time it is thought to hit, new technology gets operated to kick the can ahead. This time isn't different but what differs is the effort. One only has to search for:

deep sea oil drilling China 2025

and compare that to:

deep sea drilling US 2025

The default Chinese policy is to develop "win-win" solutions which prevent war contrary to the feudal policy of "winner takes all whatever the cost". The meteoric rise of China re science, engineering and economy suggests its policy is successful.

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