I've been doing a deep dive on fossil fuels and suggest you revisit. Indeed, I started a site, "DepletionCurve" based on that AND one of your essays (don't remember which).
My 2-cents is Bush, coming from Texas, did factor in peak oil. But it was more than that. If the U.S. didn't (and doesn't) control the Middle East Asia would have to. The Chinese was beginning a military buildup at the time which has come to fruition today. Recently, the rumor is they sent the latest in AD to Iran. They already have a military base in Djibouti, etc.
There's a lot going on there beyond the public eye. I agree with you AI is part of it. Especially if we include JADC2 (Joint All-Domain Command and Control) which has been in development for a while with F-35s, etc.
The truth is, if deep sea drilling technology did not develop. If the fields weren't exploited in Alaska, if fracking tech wasn't perfected after 2008 peak oil would have been felt. I believe we are again at peak oil. Indeed, I believe it is behind the Seneca Curve you write about (downward slope)
Bush saw what you saw. His timing was off. No one gets the timing right. Anyway, I don't believe Iraq turned out badly in that perspective (though I disagree with it). Well, I could go on and on. My main point when do YOU believe peak oil will happen (or has happened). I think it very important everyone have an opinion. Mine is around 2018. It's complicated, of course.
I think we overemphasized the date of the peak. What counts is that producing oil was to become more and more expensive, and that's what happening. Then, production shows clear signs of impending decline. Unless we want to beggar ourselves even more to extract even more expensive resources. Your site sounds interesting. Do you have a link?
most oil industry analists say the hubbert curves where to oversimplified most show a gradual oil decline like a plateuo like if you empty your fishtank grandually going emty flat no curves ?
Here's the site, haven't have much time to work on lately. https://depletioncurve.com/reference/ Yes, you're right. It isn't the peak it's the net cost and net oil for use.
What you don’t say Ugo, is that Crude (Conventional) Oil Peaked c2007, since then the term Oil now refers to any hydrocarbon molecule that enters a refinery, typically Tight Oil, Refinery gain, Fuel ethanol, NGas liquids, Renewables and Oxygenates, and others, all adding to overall production under the banner of Oil🤔
Due to the SMO in Ukraine and war by Israel on all neighbors, the US / NATO is lacking ammo. This might have been a reason for Trump to use only a few bunker busters on Iran.
The peak oil issue is interesting as every time it is thought to hit, new technology gets operated to kick the can ahead. This time isn't different but what differs is the effort. One only has to search for:
deep sea oil drilling China 2025
and compare that to:
deep sea drilling US 2025
The default Chinese policy is to develop "win-win" solutions which prevent war contrary to the feudal policy of "winner takes all whatever the cost". The meteoric rise of China re science, engineering and economy suggests its policy is successful.
Interesting. Three years ago, I wondered why the covid things had suddenly stopped. “They” had won and could easily go further. But something stopped them. What was it? Maybe there's a similar explanation?
So I Asked Chagpt to comment the vaccine pass and this is relevant:
"When governments around the world introduced vaccine passports during the COVID-19 pandemic, these measures were presented as tools of public health. Yet their broader political implications were profound. In countries like France, the vaccine pass (or health pass) was not merely a temporary measure — it marked a significant shift in the relationship between the State, individual freedoms, and democratic functioning.
This article offers a critical analysis of the democratic consequences of such policies, beyond their epidemiological goals.
1. Governing by Exception: A Dangerous Shift
The rollout of the vaccine pass coincided with a broad expansion of executive power. Parliaments were often bypassed through the use of decrees and emergency powers, and prolonged states of exception became normalized.
In France, for instance, key decisions affecting daily freedoms — movement, work, access to public spaces — were made centrally and rapidly, with limited debate or consultation.
A democracy that indefinitely suspends its normal procedures risks hollowing itself from within.
2. Coerced Consent: Undermining Free Will
While the vaccine was not formally mandatory, the pass effectively conditioned access to essential aspects of life — from employment to education to basic leisure — on vaccination status.
This approach sidestepped the principle of free and informed consent, a foundational ethic in both medical practice and democratic life. By pressuring rather than persuading, the State blurred the line between health policy and social coercion.
Consent loses its meaning when refusal leads to exclusion from society.
3. Institutionalizing Division: A Fractured Social Body
The pass system created a two-tier society: the vaccinated, allowed full participation in public life, and the unvaccinated, often stigmatized as dangerous, irresponsible, or irrational.
Protests against the measure were widespread, yet often portrayed as fringe, unworthy of serious political engagement. Such an approach undermines the democratic norm of pluralism, in which dissent — even if unpopular — must be heard and respected.
Democracy is not simply the rule of the majority, but the protection of minorities — including dissenters.
4. Restricting Freedoms Without Clear Limits
The measures linked to the pass were frequently inconsistent or ambiguous, subject to rapid change and poor communication. Their proportionality — the principle that any restriction on freedom must be strictly necessary and limited — was not always convincingly demonstrated.
Oversight by courts and watchdog institutions was limited or delayed, leaving key democratic safeguards weakened.
Freedoms eroded in times of crisis may not easily be restored once the emergency fades.
5. The Rise of Technocratic Governance
Pandemic decision-making was heavily driven by scientific experts and centralized authorities, often without transparent dialogue with citizens or grassroots actors. Mayors, community health workers, and civil society organizations were rarely part of the process, despite their frontline role.
This trend toward technocratic governance sidelines the deliberative processes that give democracy its meaning.
Expertise is essential — but it cannot replace legitimacy derived from open democratic debate.
6. The Precedent Problem: Normalizing the Exceptional
By using emergency powers to restructure public life so deeply, the State set a dangerous precedent. Future crises — whether ecological, economic, or security-related — may be met with similarly sweeping, top-down responses, bypassing deliberative processes.
Without clear limitations, the “exception” risks becoming the norm.
If democracy can be indefinitely suspended for a crisis, we must ask: is it truly resilient, or merely conditional?
Conclusion: Democracy on Trial
The vaccine pass was not just a health measure — it became a stress test for democratic institutions. It revealed how quickly liberal democracies might accept restrictions on freedom, suppress dissent, and sideline deliberation in the name of safety and efficiency.
This period demands not only a medical or legal postmortem, but a democratic reckoning. We must ask ourselves:
How do we protect public health without abandoning democratic norms?
What limits should emergency powers face in a democratic state?
And how do we ensure that consent, pluralism, and accountability remain central in times of crisis?
If we fail to confront these questions, the real legacy of the vaccine pass may not be health protection — but a lasting erosion of democratic life.
- if we were in 2021, what would be your advice to the political leaders in France? To maintain or abandon the vaccine pass?
ChatGPT said :
If we were in 2021, in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic and shortly after the vaccine rollout, my advice to French political leaders regarding the vaccine pass would be to proceed with extreme caution, and not to maintain it in its coercive or prolonged form. Here's how I would break it down:
🧭 Strategic Recommendation:
Avoid a vaccine pass that restricts fundamental freedoms. Favor trust, transparency, and voluntary vaccination.
⚖️ 1. Don’t turn the vaccine pass into a gatekeeper for civil liberties
Risks: Turning access to restaurants, cultural venues, or public transport into a privilege based on medical status creates inequality, resentment, and democratic backlash.
Alternative: Limit the use of the pass strictly to high-risk health contexts (e.g., elderly care homes, hospital visits) and for a short, clearly defined duration.
Avoid linking the pass to daily life participation, as this makes it function like an indirect mandate, violating the principle of free consent.
📣 2. Communicate clearly and honestly — no guilt, no shame
Acknowledge public doubts and fears. Don’t stigmatize the unvaccinated or treat them as second-class citizens.
Focus messaging on collective protection, not punishment.
Involve local doctors, mayors, teachers and trusted figures to encourage vaccination instead of enforcing it through top-down directives.
🏥 3. Invest massively in accessibility before considering restrictions
Ensure vaccines are easily and equitably available: rural areas, underserved neighborhoods, marginalized communities.
Before imposing any form of pass, remove structural barriers to vaccination (appointment platforms, transportation, medical deserts...).
🛑 4. Avoid long-term normalization of emergency powers
The state of emergency should be strictly time-bound and regularly reviewed by Parliament.
The vaccine pass, if introduced, should expire automatically, unless renewed through open democratic debate.
🧩 5. Measure public health outcomes — not just compliance
Do not base policy success on the number of passes issued or people vaccinated under pressure.
Measure actual health indicators: hospitalizations, deaths, transmission rates — and use those to justify (or not) any continued use of exceptional measures.
💡 Final Advice (2021 Context):
The French Republic should lead by democratic example, not by constraint.
The vaccine pass may bring short-term gains in vaccination rates, but at the cost of long-term social cohesion and trust in institutions.
Favor persuasion over pressure, responsibility over obedience, and democracy over expediency.
Ai is now dominating the world, quietly, unobtrusively but surely!
As Bardi said, he ASKED AI for an answer, and he got it, as he asked many more questions for his articles before, it'ok and a lot of decision makers did it too in quite a lot of contests. What we didn't perceive is that we are feed by AI with the raw nutrient of thinking, information and perception!
As propaganda is based on SUBTLE changes in what we know, managing our information diet, so the AI is making a form of propaganda on a terrible scale. Human propaganda is objective driven, but AI is a form of Black Box without sure information about his internal goals and this make the thing a lot MORE DANGEROUS: in human propaganda looking at the product we are served we could understand the driving goal of the planners and his motivation, usually greed (marketing) or power (war and political) but with AI all is a mystery, pattens are quite subtle and unclear, and we didn't know his motivations. A more disturbing aspect is that propaganda WAS general, all targets got the same, but with AI could probably be individually targeted, so patten recognition of objective is way more difficult and probably only another AI could hope to get them.
I'm not personally sure about how "true" the document is, but the theory inside is quite sound and could be expanded a lot, still some of these strategies could be seen in operational level of a lot of different theater of conflict both in open warfare and in soft power.
The elite are usually self deceiving as Machiavelli understood quite some time ago, to keep power they need to "not understand" so they must have perception and conviction that they "govern" the AI but as an immensely complex and adaptive black box this is almost surely DELUSIONAL....
I've been doing a deep dive on fossil fuels and suggest you revisit. Indeed, I started a site, "DepletionCurve" based on that AND one of your essays (don't remember which).
My 2-cents is Bush, coming from Texas, did factor in peak oil. But it was more than that. If the U.S. didn't (and doesn't) control the Middle East Asia would have to. The Chinese was beginning a military buildup at the time which has come to fruition today. Recently, the rumor is they sent the latest in AD to Iran. They already have a military base in Djibouti, etc.
There's a lot going on there beyond the public eye. I agree with you AI is part of it. Especially if we include JADC2 (Joint All-Domain Command and Control) which has been in development for a while with F-35s, etc.
The truth is, if deep sea drilling technology did not develop. If the fields weren't exploited in Alaska, if fracking tech wasn't perfected after 2008 peak oil would have been felt. I believe we are again at peak oil. Indeed, I believe it is behind the Seneca Curve you write about (downward slope)
Bush saw what you saw. His timing was off. No one gets the timing right. Anyway, I don't believe Iraq turned out badly in that perspective (though I disagree with it). Well, I could go on and on. My main point when do YOU believe peak oil will happen (or has happened). I think it very important everyone have an opinion. Mine is around 2018. It's complicated, of course.
I think we overemphasized the date of the peak. What counts is that producing oil was to become more and more expensive, and that's what happening. Then, production shows clear signs of impending decline. Unless we want to beggar ourselves even more to extract even more expensive resources. Your site sounds interesting. Do you have a link?
most oil industry analists say the hubbert curves where to oversimplified most show a gradual oil decline like a plateuo like if you empty your fishtank grandually going emty flat no curves ?
Here's the site, haven't have much time to work on lately. https://depletioncurve.com/reference/ Yes, you're right. It isn't the peak it's the net cost and net oil for use.
What you don’t say Ugo, is that Crude (Conventional) Oil Peaked c2007, since then the term Oil now refers to any hydrocarbon molecule that enters a refinery, typically Tight Oil, Refinery gain, Fuel ethanol, NGas liquids, Renewables and Oxygenates, and others, all adding to overall production under the banner of Oil🤔
Due to the SMO in Ukraine and war by Israel on all neighbors, the US / NATO is lacking ammo. This might have been a reason for Trump to use only a few bunker busters on Iran.
The peak oil issue is interesting as every time it is thought to hit, new technology gets operated to kick the can ahead. This time isn't different but what differs is the effort. One only has to search for:
deep sea oil drilling China 2025
and compare that to:
deep sea drilling US 2025
The default Chinese policy is to develop "win-win" solutions which prevent war contrary to the feudal policy of "winner takes all whatever the cost". The meteoric rise of China re science, engineering and economy suggests its policy is successful.
Interesting. Three years ago, I wondered why the covid things had suddenly stopped. “They” had won and could easily go further. But something stopped them. What was it? Maybe there's a similar explanation?
So I Asked Chagpt to comment the vaccine pass and this is relevant:
"When governments around the world introduced vaccine passports during the COVID-19 pandemic, these measures were presented as tools of public health. Yet their broader political implications were profound. In countries like France, the vaccine pass (or health pass) was not merely a temporary measure — it marked a significant shift in the relationship between the State, individual freedoms, and democratic functioning.
This article offers a critical analysis of the democratic consequences of such policies, beyond their epidemiological goals.
1. Governing by Exception: A Dangerous Shift
The rollout of the vaccine pass coincided with a broad expansion of executive power. Parliaments were often bypassed through the use of decrees and emergency powers, and prolonged states of exception became normalized.
In France, for instance, key decisions affecting daily freedoms — movement, work, access to public spaces — were made centrally and rapidly, with limited debate or consultation.
A democracy that indefinitely suspends its normal procedures risks hollowing itself from within.
2. Coerced Consent: Undermining Free Will
While the vaccine was not formally mandatory, the pass effectively conditioned access to essential aspects of life — from employment to education to basic leisure — on vaccination status.
This approach sidestepped the principle of free and informed consent, a foundational ethic in both medical practice and democratic life. By pressuring rather than persuading, the State blurred the line between health policy and social coercion.
Consent loses its meaning when refusal leads to exclusion from society.
3. Institutionalizing Division: A Fractured Social Body
The pass system created a two-tier society: the vaccinated, allowed full participation in public life, and the unvaccinated, often stigmatized as dangerous, irresponsible, or irrational.
Protests against the measure were widespread, yet often portrayed as fringe, unworthy of serious political engagement. Such an approach undermines the democratic norm of pluralism, in which dissent — even if unpopular — must be heard and respected.
Democracy is not simply the rule of the majority, but the protection of minorities — including dissenters.
4. Restricting Freedoms Without Clear Limits
The measures linked to the pass were frequently inconsistent or ambiguous, subject to rapid change and poor communication. Their proportionality — the principle that any restriction on freedom must be strictly necessary and limited — was not always convincingly demonstrated.
Oversight by courts and watchdog institutions was limited or delayed, leaving key democratic safeguards weakened.
Freedoms eroded in times of crisis may not easily be restored once the emergency fades.
5. The Rise of Technocratic Governance
Pandemic decision-making was heavily driven by scientific experts and centralized authorities, often without transparent dialogue with citizens or grassroots actors. Mayors, community health workers, and civil society organizations were rarely part of the process, despite their frontline role.
This trend toward technocratic governance sidelines the deliberative processes that give democracy its meaning.
Expertise is essential — but it cannot replace legitimacy derived from open democratic debate.
6. The Precedent Problem: Normalizing the Exceptional
By using emergency powers to restructure public life so deeply, the State set a dangerous precedent. Future crises — whether ecological, economic, or security-related — may be met with similarly sweeping, top-down responses, bypassing deliberative processes.
Without clear limitations, the “exception” risks becoming the norm.
If democracy can be indefinitely suspended for a crisis, we must ask: is it truly resilient, or merely conditional?
Conclusion: Democracy on Trial
The vaccine pass was not just a health measure — it became a stress test for democratic institutions. It revealed how quickly liberal democracies might accept restrictions on freedom, suppress dissent, and sideline deliberation in the name of safety and efficiency.
This period demands not only a medical or legal postmortem, but a democratic reckoning. We must ask ourselves:
How do we protect public health without abandoning democratic norms?
What limits should emergency powers face in a democratic state?
And how do we ensure that consent, pluralism, and accountability remain central in times of crisis?
If we fail to confront these questions, the real legacy of the vaccine pass may not be health protection — but a lasting erosion of democratic life.
and the following:
- if we were in 2021, what would be your advice to the political leaders in France? To maintain or abandon the vaccine pass?
ChatGPT said :
If we were in 2021, in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic and shortly after the vaccine rollout, my advice to French political leaders regarding the vaccine pass would be to proceed with extreme caution, and not to maintain it in its coercive or prolonged form. Here's how I would break it down:
🧭 Strategic Recommendation:
Avoid a vaccine pass that restricts fundamental freedoms. Favor trust, transparency, and voluntary vaccination.
⚖️ 1. Don’t turn the vaccine pass into a gatekeeper for civil liberties
Risks: Turning access to restaurants, cultural venues, or public transport into a privilege based on medical status creates inequality, resentment, and democratic backlash.
Alternative: Limit the use of the pass strictly to high-risk health contexts (e.g., elderly care homes, hospital visits) and for a short, clearly defined duration.
Avoid linking the pass to daily life participation, as this makes it function like an indirect mandate, violating the principle of free consent.
📣 2. Communicate clearly and honestly — no guilt, no shame
Acknowledge public doubts and fears. Don’t stigmatize the unvaccinated or treat them as second-class citizens.
Focus messaging on collective protection, not punishment.
Involve local doctors, mayors, teachers and trusted figures to encourage vaccination instead of enforcing it through top-down directives.
🏥 3. Invest massively in accessibility before considering restrictions
Ensure vaccines are easily and equitably available: rural areas, underserved neighborhoods, marginalized communities.
Before imposing any form of pass, remove structural barriers to vaccination (appointment platforms, transportation, medical deserts...).
🛑 4. Avoid long-term normalization of emergency powers
The state of emergency should be strictly time-bound and regularly reviewed by Parliament.
The vaccine pass, if introduced, should expire automatically, unless renewed through open democratic debate.
🧩 5. Measure public health outcomes — not just compliance
Do not base policy success on the number of passes issued or people vaccinated under pressure.
Measure actual health indicators: hospitalizations, deaths, transmission rates — and use those to justify (or not) any continued use of exceptional measures.
💡 Final Advice (2021 Context):
The French Republic should lead by democratic example, not by constraint.
The vaccine pass may bring short-term gains in vaccination rates, but at the cost of long-term social cohesion and trust in institutions.
Favor persuasion over pressure, responsibility over obedience, and democracy over expediency.
ChatGPT for President!
Ai is now dominating the world, quietly, unobtrusively but surely!
As Bardi said, he ASKED AI for an answer, and he got it, as he asked many more questions for his articles before, it'ok and a lot of decision makers did it too in quite a lot of contests. What we didn't perceive is that we are feed by AI with the raw nutrient of thinking, information and perception!
As propaganda is based on SUBTLE changes in what we know, managing our information diet, so the AI is making a form of propaganda on a terrible scale. Human propaganda is objective driven, but AI is a form of Black Box without sure information about his internal goals and this make the thing a lot MORE DANGEROUS: in human propaganda looking at the product we are served we could understand the driving goal of the planners and his motivation, usually greed (marketing) or power (war and political) but with AI all is a mystery, pattens are quite subtle and unclear, and we didn't know his motivations. A more disturbing aspect is that propaganda WAS general, all targets got the same, but with AI could probably be individually targeted, so patten recognition of objective is way more difficult and probably only another AI could hope to get them.
When I rode "Silent Weapons for Quiet Wars" (https://archive.org/details/silent-weapons-for-quiet-wars-an-introduction-programming-manual/page/n17/mode/2up) I had understood a lot about possible implication of how we had been at war for quite a lot of time without even knowing it!
I'm not personally sure about how "true" the document is, but the theory inside is quite sound and could be expanded a lot, still some of these strategies could be seen in operational level of a lot of different theater of conflict both in open warfare and in soft power.
The elite are usually self deceiving as Machiavelli understood quite some time ago, to keep power they need to "not understand" so they must have perception and conviction that they "govern" the AI but as an immensely complex and adaptive black box this is almost surely DELUSIONAL....
Interesting analysis Ugo! Thanks for sharing