Telling the truth has always been dangerous, and the original Cassandra, the Trojan prophetess, had to suffer the consequences for what she said. But there is a more interesting question: How did she manage to be right while everyone else got it wrong? (If you like to hear the story told by the prophetess herself, you can read it
One should ask a simple question: how come that US is the only country in the world that can produce shale oil? Serbia has considerable deposits of shale, and for that matter, shale rich in oil, but it doesn't produce any shale oil. Well, the difference between US and Serbia is that Serbian currency is not world's reserve currency. Only US can subside losses in production by money printing. But for how long? Until others accept US dollar as reserve currency. After that point in time it will be impossible for US to mask losses by money printing and the game will be over.
Thx, nice post Ugo... On HAWE I share your view, still considering it as a potential breakthrough tech but requiring still a lot of work (rather with rigid wings than with kites, though...). EROI has been misused and bended to any direction, but still an outstanding tool imho: to be preserved and spread to larger audiences. By the way, I am organizing a presentation of the Emcoin Project on early June, where I hope Charles Hall could intervene in person, via conf call.
Art Berman continues posting interesting assessments of shale oil & other energy investments and the profitable or in this case in the slightly longer term, unprofitable, returns - as the market sees it.
.......But they are going to replace traditional vehicles in the coming years.
I think you will regret to have said that in a few years...
I too own an electric scooter and they are fantastic.
But it's only a niche product to be used solely in an urban environment.
But "electric vehicles" are a completely different ball game.
They are much heavier, cost a whole lot more, have much worse performances and are totally unusable outside of developed countries urban cities where you can recharge them. That's a BIG part of the world today and will remain like that for a long time, if not forever. And in those regions of the world (95% ?) those vehicles are simply useless because you simply can't recharge them...
Add to that fact that insurance companies don't want to insure them (or with a much higher premium) and you should be able to see that this craze and the number of the "I too wanna save the planet" buyers crowd has reached its limits... Big car renting companies are getting rid of them, sale figures are down, many carmaker have simply cancelled their EV projects...
I do agree with you that the EVs are the future of vehicles because technically they are much simpler/easier to build (especially when you look at concepts like this one : https://ree.auto/technology/) but until they can truly replace the ICE vehicles, one major problem has still to be solved: the storage of energy: i.e. the battery. They need to be much smaller, lighter and easily replaced and/or recharged. For the time being we are very very far from technically achieving that...
As a conclusion, "in the coming years", yes of course, but don't kid yourself, they'll be more likely used by our grandchildren then by our children...
BTW, in the US there are about 300 millions vehicles on the roads and a little over 3 millions EVs.
I guess that number is even lower for poorer countries so we are still a loooong way away from any kind of "replacement" :(
Regarding "peak oil," have you been reading Art Berman on the topic?
He claims that volume is the wrong metric for determining peak oil, and that we should focus on production, instead. (He also predicts that fracking can't go on much longer!)
His latest missive says, "The market is shorting growth. That’s a paradigm change." In other words, we may be seeing a leading indicator of deflation, as civilization begins to enter catabolic collapse, led by a fossil-sunlight market that is now focused on cash returns, rather than growth.
Fascinating stuff that may vindicate your "peak oil" views!
Regarding peak oil, the metric I'd really prefer to see is exergy (net usable energy; energy delivered after extraction, refining and distribution) of oil and other liquids. That would tell us far more about the state of fossil energy. Observing gross hydrocarbon consumption vs. net usable energy might also tell us a great deal more than we can presently glean.
You were even worse on shale gas...it's not just over-interpretation of a short blip. You also said it was a "short term financial bubble"...and that we should listen to Art Berman. They guy who said shale gas needs $8 to survive. What a miserable record he has.
And the wishful thinking of peakers (let's be real...they WANT the peak....want to be proven right.)
Which has been a constant problem of peak oiler/gasers. We get a decline because of prices and they think the geology is spent. It's really classic in natural gas which has VERY noticeable weather impacts. But still the same peak oilers who blame financial skulduggery from ruining their treehugger peak oil memes, fail to understand that production drops when prices drop.]
Anyhow...it hasn't been an issue of Cassandra being right and nobody listening to her. But about her being a Y2K crybaby and not looking at facts when she was wrong!
I always found the peak oilers to lack intellectual humility (Dunning Kruger) and to be biased. For instance...having failed to predict shale, at all, then once it was a phenomenon, they underestimated it at every corner. Well below official estimates or industry estimates or consulting firms or banks. And no, G&R is not a serious entity compared to Goldman or Wood Mac...buncha peak oilers themselves.
Here's the thing...a seriously intellectually curious person would have said "hey I was wrong on shale to begin...maybe I ought not to prognosticate so much, Maybe stop and reassess and think...and be a little less certain of myself". But not the peak oilers. Instead they misunderestimated shale consistently. Why? Because they are biased.
I was in China when they transitioned from gasoline Mopeds to eBikes. It was pretty weird ... they just notified people by apartment block of a date, took away all the gas scooters and replaced them all with ebikes on that date, and people didn't seem at all upset. Imagine the uproar in the US if the "guberment" just took away your (and all your neighbors) diesel truck(s) and left you a ford lightning pickup
One should ask a simple question: how come that US is the only country in the world that can produce shale oil? Serbia has considerable deposits of shale, and for that matter, shale rich in oil, but it doesn't produce any shale oil. Well, the difference between US and Serbia is that Serbian currency is not world's reserve currency. Only US can subside losses in production by money printing. But for how long? Until others accept US dollar as reserve currency. After that point in time it will be impossible for US to mask losses by money printing and the game will be over.
Thx, nice post Ugo... On HAWE I share your view, still considering it as a potential breakthrough tech but requiring still a lot of work (rather with rigid wings than with kites, though...). EROI has been misused and bended to any direction, but still an outstanding tool imho: to be preserved and spread to larger audiences. By the way, I am organizing a presentation of the Emcoin Project on early June, where I hope Charles Hall could intervene in person, via conf call.
Art Berman continues posting interesting assessments of shale oil & other energy investments and the profitable or in this case in the slightly longer term, unprofitable, returns - as the market sees it.
https://www.artberman.com/blog/what-the-oil-and-commodity-bulls-are-missing/
'the market is not 'wrong', like the weather it just is'. Art quotes Tainter; 'Collapse of Complex Societies'.
2005. Electric Cars are the future. ......
.......But they are going to replace traditional vehicles in the coming years.
I think you will regret to have said that in a few years...
I too own an electric scooter and they are fantastic.
But it's only a niche product to be used solely in an urban environment.
But "electric vehicles" are a completely different ball game.
They are much heavier, cost a whole lot more, have much worse performances and are totally unusable outside of developed countries urban cities where you can recharge them. That's a BIG part of the world today and will remain like that for a long time, if not forever. And in those regions of the world (95% ?) those vehicles are simply useless because you simply can't recharge them...
Add to that fact that insurance companies don't want to insure them (or with a much higher premium) and you should be able to see that this craze and the number of the "I too wanna save the planet" buyers crowd has reached its limits... Big car renting companies are getting rid of them, sale figures are down, many carmaker have simply cancelled their EV projects...
I do agree with you that the EVs are the future of vehicles because technically they are much simpler/easier to build (especially when you look at concepts like this one : https://ree.auto/technology/) but until they can truly replace the ICE vehicles, one major problem has still to be solved: the storage of energy: i.e. the battery. They need to be much smaller, lighter and easily replaced and/or recharged. For the time being we are very very far from technically achieving that...
As a conclusion, "in the coming years", yes of course, but don't kid yourself, they'll be more likely used by our grandchildren then by our children...
BTW, in the US there are about 300 millions vehicles on the roads and a little over 3 millions EVs.
I guess that number is even lower for poorer countries so we are still a loooong way away from any kind of "replacement" :(
Regarding "peak oil," have you been reading Art Berman on the topic?
He claims that volume is the wrong metric for determining peak oil, and that we should focus on production, instead. (He also predicts that fracking can't go on much longer!)
His latest missive says, "The market is shorting growth. That’s a paradigm change." In other words, we may be seeing a leading indicator of deflation, as civilization begins to enter catabolic collapse, led by a fossil-sunlight market that is now focused on cash returns, rather than growth.
Fascinating stuff that may vindicate your "peak oil" views!
https://www.artberman.com/blog/what-the-oil-and-commodity-bulls-are-missing/
Reading this "laundry list " of your predictions, I notice that your " misses " were the more optimistic ones. Sigh.
As Lucy said in the comics:
"I thought I was wrong once, but I was mistaken ..."
Thank you for what you do; it's unfortunate that many of your peers would rather be loudly wrong, than quietly right.
Still sounds like an *awful* lot of faith in EVs.
Very good.
Re covid, we might not yet be out of the woods. See Geert Vanden Bossche, scienceandsolidarity website.
Cheers.
Regarding peak oil, the metric I'd really prefer to see is exergy (net usable energy; energy delivered after extraction, refining and distribution) of oil and other liquids. That would tell us far more about the state of fossil energy. Observing gross hydrocarbon consumption vs. net usable energy might also tell us a great deal more than we can presently glean.
You were even worse on shale gas...it's not just over-interpretation of a short blip. You also said it was a "short term financial bubble"...and that we should listen to Art Berman. They guy who said shale gas needs $8 to survive. What a miserable record he has.
A decade later and KABOOM! Scoreboard, baby.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/ngm_epg0_fgw_nus_mmcfdm.htm
And the wishful thinking of peakers (let's be real...they WANT the peak....want to be proven right.)
Which has been a constant problem of peak oiler/gasers. We get a decline because of prices and they think the geology is spent. It's really classic in natural gas which has VERY noticeable weather impacts. But still the same peak oilers who blame financial skulduggery from ruining their treehugger peak oil memes, fail to understand that production drops when prices drop.]
Anyhow...it hasn't been an issue of Cassandra being right and nobody listening to her. But about her being a Y2K crybaby and not looking at facts when she was wrong!
https://peakoildebunked.blogspot.com/2013/07/429-oil-drum-bites-bag.html
I always found the peak oilers to lack intellectual humility (Dunning Kruger) and to be biased. For instance...having failed to predict shale, at all, then once it was a phenomenon, they underestimated it at every corner. Well below official estimates or industry estimates or consulting firms or banks. And no, G&R is not a serious entity compared to Goldman or Wood Mac...buncha peak oilers themselves.
Here's the thing...a seriously intellectually curious person would have said "hey I was wrong on shale to begin...maybe I ought not to prognosticate so much, Maybe stop and reassess and think...and be a little less certain of myself". But not the peak oilers. Instead they misunderestimated shale consistently. Why? Because they are biased.
I was in China when they transitioned from gasoline Mopeds to eBikes. It was pretty weird ... they just notified people by apartment block of a date, took away all the gas scooters and replaced them all with ebikes on that date, and people didn't seem at all upset. Imagine the uproar in the US if the "guberment" just took away your (and all your neighbors) diesel truck(s) and left you a ford lightning pickup