Consider hypercomplexity vs complexity. The US and UK are hypercomplex, stuck in the acceleration of acceleration (jerk - 3rd derivative) of their growth economy. France, Germany and the rest of the EU economies are still in the acceleration of growth (2nd derivative). France and Germany can manage a contracting economy. The US and UK cannot. They will just crash. The Americans and Brits see this happening at the ground level. That is why they are wallowing in despair. If you can get out of these two countries, do so. If you cannot get out, reduce your lifestyle to a minimal level and keep your head down.
Brits call the second derivative of distance with respect to time acceleration, as do we "Yanks", but they call the third derivative "jerk" and the fourth derivative "snap".
Fifth derivative is "crackle" and sixth derivative is "pop." And yes, they were named after the three Kellogg's Rice Krispies characters. Even mathematicians have a sense of humor.
These are calculus terms, like inflection point and saddle point. A simple Web search on each of these terms will yield a lot of information. For example, if you are cognizant of Joseph Tainter’s The Collapse of Complex Societies (1988), you are aware of his thesis of the slowdown of marginal returns that weakens a complex society. If a catastrophe happens, the society can collapse into less complex regional polities. The tipping point is the inflection point. Tainter's thesis is the second derivative. My model bumps it up to the next level, i.e. hypercomplex. This is where the society needs not only accelerating growth but an increase in the acceleration. We can see this in the US and UK now but not in the rest of western developed economies. The US and UK have to go faster and faster, like a rising treadmill. Oops. No bueno.
I have done a deep dive on this in my first book, The Laws of Physics Are On My Side (2013) but you don't have to read my books. You can do the math yourself.
We can see that both France and Germany are managing contraction in their GDP without their social safety net collapsing. This is because they are not on a rising treadmill like the US and the UK. I live in France and see it on a daily basis. Don't believe the bullshit in the newspapers. Do the research yourself.
WARNING: I have no time for arguments. If you cannot evaluate opposing viewpoints and do the research, don't bother me with inane rigid simplistic thinking.
These are calculus terms, like inflection point and saddle point. A simple Web search on each of these terms will yield a lot of information. For example, if you are cognizant of Joseph Tainter’s The Collapse of Complex Societies (1988), you are aware of his thesis of the slowdown of marginal returns that weakens a complex society. If a catastrophe happens, the society can collapse into less complex regional polities. The tipping point is the inflection point. Tainter's thesis is the second derivative. My model bumps it up to the next level, i.e. hypercomplex. This is where the society needs not only accelerating growth but an increase in the acceleration. We can see this in the US and UK now but not in the rest of western developed economies. The US and UK have to go faster and faster, like a rising treadmill. Oops. No bueno.
I have done a deep dive on this in my first book, The Laws of Physics Are On My Side (2013) but you don't have to read my books. You can do the math yourself.
We can see that both France and Germany are managing contraction in their GDP without their social safety net collapsing. This is because they are not on a rising treadmill like the US and the UK. I live in France and see it on a daily basis. Don't believe the bullshit in the newspapers. Do the research yourself.
WARNING: I have no time for arguments. If you cannot evaluate opposing viewpoints and do the research, don't bother me with inane rigid simplistic thinking.
Already mid-70s it could have become clear that long-term economic planning was absent in the US. "Short term profit" was the policy that (in part) was forced on some vassal states too. In a consumer-based economy, outsourcing well-earning knowledge-based workers already was a case of slow-motion suicide. Substituting production with casino-like activities has a short expiry date as well. The empirical rule, countries run by lawyers (like US) double down on what doesn't work whereas countries run by engineers look far ahead and adapt long before problems arise.
As usual, you've nailed it. The so-called "shale revolution" may have bought us about two decades of"normalcy." But it was always expensive, increased levels of public and private debt (remember "quantitative easing"?), and brought climate catastrophe closer.
What do you think about Peter Turchin's analysis of political instability ("Ages of Discord," "End Times," etc.)? He seems to be say many of the same things you are about instability, but using different logic.
Ugo, you have got things a bit backward and inside-out. The violent disorders are coming from the Left. . . and not just kinetic disorder but disorders-of-mind. This is not a replay of Nazi Germany, with you casting Mr. Trump as Hitler. The Left is the faction veering into murderous totalitarianism — they are Jacobins!
James, I don't have a clue what is 'left' and what is 'right' any more.
Andrew Bridgen ex-MP said in 2023 or so that it was now mostly about 'right' and 'wrong'.
Political beliefs need to use at least seven axes, not one, as the UK organisation Electoral Calculus showed. Currently, 'left' mainly seems to be used to mean authoritarian, but there are people who could be called left libertarians, e.g. Jem Bendell, jembendell.com or Simon Elmer. The latter gave a good recent interview to James Delingpole ... a 'right libertarian', to confuse matters.
West Texas intermediate has been locked in about $60/bbl for months, which is the sweet spot that pays the bills and barely supports production. Production costs are rising, of course, but cheap oil supports the whole economy. Light fracked oil won't make diesel fuel or jet fuel, so heavy Venezuelan oil coming back to gulf coast refineries that were made for it will help overall systemic efficiency.
What this looks like to me is that power players of the world are sprinting on the edge of a knife for the best possible positions before part-2 of the GFC hits, and the global financial reset happens in the setting of no trust at all...
hoi dear professor ugo bardi will we have civilization collapse in 2026 or 2027 or is there still time left because i see us crude oil production in 2026 at 13.6 mb/day and in 2027 13.3 mb/day ?
Another fountain of wisdom is your posting, Ugo. The moniker American Cultural Revolution will be suppressed in the narrative re-framing but the truth is there for those who wish to see. This is another posting that I will be sharing as widely as possible.
Consider hypercomplexity vs complexity. The US and UK are hypercomplex, stuck in the acceleration of acceleration (jerk - 3rd derivative) of their growth economy. France, Germany and the rest of the EU economies are still in the acceleration of growth (2nd derivative). France and Germany can manage a contracting economy. The US and UK cannot. They will just crash. The Americans and Brits see this happening at the ground level. That is why they are wallowing in despair. If you can get out of these two countries, do so. If you cannot get out, reduce your lifestyle to a minimal level and keep your head down.
Hi Walter Haugen, may I ask what you mean by 'jerk - 3rd derivative' and '2nd derivative'?
I'm not familiar with these terms.
And why do you think that 'France and Germany can manage a contracting economy'?
Brits call the second derivative of distance with respect to time acceleration, as do we "Yanks", but they call the third derivative "jerk" and the fourth derivative "snap".
Fifth derivative is "crackle" and sixth derivative is "pop." And yes, they were named after the three Kellogg's Rice Krispies characters. Even mathematicians have a sense of humor.
These are calculus terms, like inflection point and saddle point. A simple Web search on each of these terms will yield a lot of information. For example, if you are cognizant of Joseph Tainter’s The Collapse of Complex Societies (1988), you are aware of his thesis of the slowdown of marginal returns that weakens a complex society. If a catastrophe happens, the society can collapse into less complex regional polities. The tipping point is the inflection point. Tainter's thesis is the second derivative. My model bumps it up to the next level, i.e. hypercomplex. This is where the society needs not only accelerating growth but an increase in the acceleration. We can see this in the US and UK now but not in the rest of western developed economies. The US and UK have to go faster and faster, like a rising treadmill. Oops. No bueno.
I have done a deep dive on this in my first book, The Laws of Physics Are On My Side (2013) but you don't have to read my books. You can do the math yourself.
We can see that both France and Germany are managing contraction in their GDP without their social safety net collapsing. This is because they are not on a rising treadmill like the US and the UK. I live in France and see it on a daily basis. Don't believe the bullshit in the newspapers. Do the research yourself.
WARNING: I have no time for arguments. If you cannot evaluate opposing viewpoints and do the research, don't bother me with inane rigid simplistic thinking.
These are calculus terms, like inflection point and saddle point. A simple Web search on each of these terms will yield a lot of information. For example, if you are cognizant of Joseph Tainter’s The Collapse of Complex Societies (1988), you are aware of his thesis of the slowdown of marginal returns that weakens a complex society. If a catastrophe happens, the society can collapse into less complex regional polities. The tipping point is the inflection point. Tainter's thesis is the second derivative. My model bumps it up to the next level, i.e. hypercomplex. This is where the society needs not only accelerating growth but an increase in the acceleration. We can see this in the US and UK now but not in the rest of western developed economies. The US and UK have to go faster and faster, like a rising treadmill. Oops. No bueno.
I have done a deep dive on this in my first book, The Laws of Physics Are On My Side (2013) but you don't have to read my books. You can do the math yourself.
We can see that both France and Germany are managing contraction in their GDP without their social safety net collapsing. This is because they are not on a rising treadmill like the US and the UK. I live in France and see it on a daily basis. Don't believe the bullshit in the newspapers. Do the research yourself.
WARNING: I have no time for arguments. If you cannot evaluate opposing viewpoints and do the research, don't bother me with inane rigid simplistic thinking.
I don't know why my reply posted twice.
Already mid-70s it could have become clear that long-term economic planning was absent in the US. "Short term profit" was the policy that (in part) was forced on some vassal states too. In a consumer-based economy, outsourcing well-earning knowledge-based workers already was a case of slow-motion suicide. Substituting production with casino-like activities has a short expiry date as well. The empirical rule, countries run by lawyers (like US) double down on what doesn't work whereas countries run by engineers look far ahead and adapt long before problems arise.
As usual, you've nailed it. The so-called "shale revolution" may have bought us about two decades of"normalcy." But it was always expensive, increased levels of public and private debt (remember "quantitative easing"?), and brought climate catastrophe closer.
What do you think about Peter Turchin's analysis of political instability ("Ages of Discord," "End Times," etc.)? He seems to be say many of the same things you are about instability, but using different logic.
Ugo, you have got things a bit backward and inside-out. The violent disorders are coming from the Left. . . and not just kinetic disorder but disorders-of-mind. This is not a replay of Nazi Germany, with you casting Mr. Trump as Hitler. The Left is the faction veering into murderous totalitarianism — they are Jacobins!
Ah... well, when things get kinetic, everyone shoots at someone. Unfortunately....
James, I don't have a clue what is 'left' and what is 'right' any more.
Andrew Bridgen ex-MP said in 2023 or so that it was now mostly about 'right' and 'wrong'.
Political beliefs need to use at least seven axes, not one, as the UK organisation Electoral Calculus showed. Currently, 'left' mainly seems to be used to mean authoritarian, but there are people who could be called left libertarians, e.g. Jem Bendell, jembendell.com or Simon Elmer. The latter gave a good recent interview to James Delingpole ... a 'right libertarian', to confuse matters.
West Texas intermediate has been locked in about $60/bbl for months, which is the sweet spot that pays the bills and barely supports production. Production costs are rising, of course, but cheap oil supports the whole economy. Light fracked oil won't make diesel fuel or jet fuel, so heavy Venezuelan oil coming back to gulf coast refineries that were made for it will help overall systemic efficiency.
What this looks like to me is that power players of the world are sprinting on the edge of a knife for the best possible positions before part-2 of the GFC hits, and the global financial reset happens in the setting of no trust at all...
hoi dear professor ugo bardi will we have civilization collapse in 2026 or 2027 or is there still time left because i see us crude oil production in 2026 at 13.6 mb/day and in 2027 13.3 mb/day ?
according to laherre from france we wilk reach peak global crude in the year 2030 can this by prof.ugo bardi ?
Another fountain of wisdom is your posting, Ugo. The moniker American Cultural Revolution will be suppressed in the narrative re-framing but the truth is there for those who wish to see. This is another posting that I will be sharing as widely as possible.