Collapsing European States: Is the Olduvai Theory Coming True?

Data from Maddison, World Bank, IEA, and GOV.UK, sourced by Grok 3. Note the decline in electricity generation and how it decouples from the GDP growth. Maybe you’ll think it is because of higher efficiency. But I have a different explanation.

Do you remember the Olduvai Theory? It was proposed by Richard C. Duncan in 1989. The idea was that industrial civilization has a lifespan of approximately 100 years (1930–2030). It predicts a peak in per capita energy production, followed by a decline due to depleting fossil fuel resources, leading to an "Olduvai cliff" of widespread blackouts and societal collapse by 2030, reverting humanity to pre-industrial conditions.

Probably, Duncan was too pessimistic in the evaluation of the time range for his theory. Still, something is happening that looks close to his ideas coming true, although not yet and not everywhere. Different countries are following different paths, but I identified three “mature” industrialized countries, Italy, Germany, and the UK, that seem to have started their descent to the Olduvai valley.

In a previous post titled “Europe Implodes,” I argued that several European countries suffered two separate economic “strokes” created first by the oil shock in 2008, and then by the natural gas crisis in 2022. The data I am showing you here is a further confirmation of that interpretation. You may use primary energy production instead of electric energy generation; the results are the same. Basically, increasing costs and reduced availability of energy negatively impacted the industrial systems of these countries: it is called “death spiral.”

Among other things, note the “decoupling” of the GDP data from the electricity generation data. You may read that as indicating that these countries are becoming more efficient in their energy use. Maybe. But my interpretation is that the GDP is being “adjusted” year after year (“hedonic factors” anyone?) in order to show a growth that, in the real world, doesn’t exist. I am sure of that. The ghost of William Jevons appeared to me last night and told me that he fully agrees with me! Apart from bluish ghosts hovering in my bedroom, if you live in one of these European countries, you know that you are worse off today than you were a few years ago. The GDP increase is a lie.

Apart from that, what’s most amazing about this story is how this data is completely unrecognized and not discussed in the most affected countries. Not just that, but the idea that renewable energy should come to the rescue is being abandoned. Instead, renewables are actively demonized and denigrated. It is as if, after a stroke, your doctor told you to wear your running shoes and take a few runs around the block.

As I said in my previous post, there is no thermodynamic reason why people should go mad when the economy of their countries stops growing. But, evidently, they do. Maybe it is the Gods, known to drive mad those whom they want to destroy.

The Goddess plays with the Universe as if it were a Jenga Tower