Interesting, Artur, thanks. On the overuse and misuse of statistical methods you may be interested in reading Adam Mastroianni's blog, if you don't read it already, because you are interested in these matters. This post in particular. "https://www.experimental-history.com/p/there-are-no-statistics-in-the-kingdom"
Off topic, but I'm looking for a post you did in c. 2013 about US natural gas total withdrawals having peaked. Can't seem to find it with Google searches. It graphed the total withdrawals and showed a dip (at that time), that you interpreted as the start of a Hubbert-ish looking curve downslope.
This is not to rag on you...want to show it to someone else.
It was just a stub, too few data to arrive at conclusions. Much later on, we saw that it was a brief dip, then production restarted growing. It is still growing; I think it will keep growing for a few years more. Unless something happens... https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9050us2a.htm
You have been asking this question a while now of civilisation. Toynbee and perhaps Spengler are proving fruitful! Smile.
Toynbee takes a very long view of human history; Spengler revolves around the relationship with religion? I don't know about 'science' - it just keeps asking questions - which is a weird kind of Promised Land. Even recently, amid the venal dross there has been some brilliant science - take Climate Science. But the latter has been useless so far.
I'll not take the name of Gaza in vain. Something is coming to an end; this is a low point for a civilisation. 'There will be a Prophet born in Gaza'.
I recently found interesting text about social Science and I wonder if you could also find it interesting, also, what would be your thoughts about it: https://www.richardhanania.com/p/epistemology-in-a-world-of-fake-data
Interesting, Artur, thanks. On the overuse and misuse of statistical methods you may be interested in reading Adam Mastroianni's blog, if you don't read it already, because you are interested in these matters. This post in particular. "https://www.experimental-history.com/p/there-are-no-statistics-in-the-kingdom"
Off topic, but I'm looking for a post you did in c. 2013 about US natural gas total withdrawals having peaked. Can't seem to find it with Google searches. It graphed the total withdrawals and showed a dip (at that time), that you interpreted as the start of a Hubbert-ish looking curve downslope.
This is not to rag on you...want to show it to someone else.
I found it. https://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/2013/07/the-shale-gas-revolution-is-it-already_7.html
It was just a stub, too few data to arrive at conclusions. Much later on, we saw that it was a brief dip, then production restarted growing. It is still growing; I think it will keep growing for a few years more. Unless something happens... https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9050us2a.htm
Thanks! You are kind, to someone who is an "opponent".
You have been asking this question a while now of civilisation. Toynbee and perhaps Spengler are proving fruitful! Smile.
Toynbee takes a very long view of human history; Spengler revolves around the relationship with religion? I don't know about 'science' - it just keeps asking questions - which is a weird kind of Promised Land. Even recently, amid the venal dross there has been some brilliant science - take Climate Science. But the latter has been useless so far.
I'll not take the name of Gaza in vain. Something is coming to an end; this is a low point for a civilisation. 'There will be a Prophet born in Gaza'.