21 Comments
User's avatar
Denny Corbin's avatar

The final months of the Biden administration saw ATACM strikes on Russian soil. With Putin pointing out, rightly so, that these missiles don’t get fired without NATO involvement. The strikes stopped the moment Trump took over. Additionally, Trumps strike on Iran appears to have been very unsatisfying for Israel. Watch what is done, not what is said. Trump will do his very best to avoid war with Iran because midterms.

Stephen Berk's avatar

Everything short of annihilation is not satisfactory to Israel in its foreign policy with what the Israelis regard as an enemy. What they did to Gaza and its Palestinian occupants could be viewed as an Israeli model of waging war. I reminds me of the saturation bombing the Allies inflicted on German cities at the end of WW2, and it earned Israel criminal status with the International Criminal Court and the International Court of Justice.

Jon Wesenberg's avatar

Anyone who has been paying close attention to politics since longer than all of us have been alive can tell you that presidents and other chief executives, even the most capable ones, have to let their cabinets and staffs create policy and manage affairs. No one person could possibly do everything. This is how chief executives and up working far past their expiration dates. The last 2-3 years of the Reagan administration come to mind. I posit that at least 80% of the terrible ideas and policies of the Trump admin came from his younger, trusted psychopathic team. I was pleasantly surprised to see that Aurelien said this and more about this topic in his latest post.

https://aurelien2022.substack.com/p/managing-the-powerful?publication_id=841976&post_id=185831395&isFreemail=true&r=7gqg9&triedRedirect=true

JustPlainBill's avatar

As I read through this blog post and the comments, I had the same thought. It is important to remember that despite appearances, the country is not really run by any one person, especially if he stands alone in what he wants to do. The fact that Trump is able to carry many of these ideas forward is ample evidence that there is some level of support for them in other parts of the governing apparatus.

Also worth considering is that since WWII, "rogue agencies" and "independent players" in the bureaucracy have shown an increasing tendency to basically do whatever they want, rather than trying to use persuasion to get their position adopted.

Saint Jimmy's avatar

Behold. The festering carcass of American rot shoved into an ill-fitting suit: the sleaze of a conman, the cowardice of a draft dodger, the gluttony of a parasite, the racism of a Klansman, the sexism of a back-alley creep, the ignorance of a bar-stool drunk, and the greed of a hedge-fund ghoul – all spray-painted orange and paraded like a prize hog at a county fair. Not a president. Not even a man. Just the diseased distillation of everything this country swears it isn’t but has always been – arrogance dressed up as exceptionalism, stupidity passed off as common sense, cruelty sold as toughness, greed exalted as ambition, and corruption worshipped like gospel. It is America’s shadow made flesh, a rotting pumpkin idol proving that when a nation kneels before money, power, and spite, it doesn’t just lose its soul – it sh*ts out this bloated obscenity and calls it a leader.” Oliver Kornetzke via Substack.

Bob Beck's avatar

China was accepting Venezuela oil as payment for economic development. Oil trading outside the dollar is unacceptable. The Maduro kidnapping allows "force majure" cancellation of the Chinese development deals.

This is Act 1 in War on China. Act 2 will be the strike on Iran. Izzy gets what it wants. Hawks get what they want. All because China has no oil of its own.

Tho this be madness there be method in it.

Bob Beck's avatar

I think TACO on Tuesday. Iran will capitulate and agree to not do anything they are not doing now which will be a yuge trumpolini win. The fleet will intercept Iranian tankers taking oil to China. That is act 2. What will China,Russia,Iran and Oil do?????

John Ennis's avatar

Not meaning to sound flip Ugo, but I have lived in the US for 69 of my 72 years. I can’t for the life of me remember having a sane president.

Ugo Bardi's avatar

There is also a question of degree..... :-)

John Ennis's avatar

Agreed, In my mind, Jimmy Carter was the closest to sane. Bush One wasn't that far behind. Bush II, Reagan, Clinton, and Biden were all pretty far around the bend in their individual and peculiar pathologies. I am still on the fence about Obama, the problem is that much amorality in one person.

Trump is crazy, but truthfully, no one sane would want the job. He was handed a plate of shit forty years in the making and his ego can't quite come to grips with the concept that there is no way up. So he keeps digging. Digging won't solve the problem, but that is all he knows how to do.

Poor bastard....I suppose I would go crazy too.

Tim's avatar

"...no one sane would want the job." I've long been of the opinion that we need a Constitutional Amendment, to the effect that no one who wants to be President should be allowed to run for that office, because they are clearly insane. Who knows...we might get better presidents from using a lottery system among qualified voters.

John Day MD's avatar

Stephen Miller is Trump's "Wormtongue".

;-(

mistah charley, ph.d.'s avatar

Born in 1947, I was reading science fiction novels a decade later, so imagining futures, including dystopian futures, is something I have practice in. When Limits to Growth came out in my 20s, I heard of it but didn't give it much attention - busy with other stuff. Now, in the 21st century, it's become clear that modernity will outlive me, but maybe by only a generation or two. We - talking writing typing apes - are more clever and selfish than we are wise and kind. Stuff will happen. On one level, it's tragic - but when the talking stops, it's physics. What must be, must be.

Jan Steinman's avatar

For a near-future perspective on †rump's dementia:

https://joadt.substack.com/p/the-presentation

Rick Rogers's avatar

During the election debates Trump said “In Springfield they’re eating the cats & dogs”. That should’ve been the end of it, in any sane & rational world.

aaron's avatar
2dEdited

trump is worse but i think jd vance would by worser not forgotten how he lashed out to zelensky even trump was silent than ?

Neural Foundry's avatar

Strong framing of the madness-vs-strategy dilemma. The Hamlet parallel is clever becuase it highlights how observers can never fully distinguish calculated unpredictability from actual cognitive decline until actions cross a threshold. History shows this ambiguity often gets resolved too late, which is the terrifying part when nuclear escalation is on teh table.

Tim's avatar

Prof. Bardi wrote, "And even if the attack were successful, what exactly would the US gain from destroying Iran? To say nothing about the suffering that it would inflict on the Iranian people..."

Before I respond, I want to say that I am by inclination a pretty strong pacifist, but not absolutely so. There are times when military action is needed, and the case of Iran is one of them.

What would the US gain? It would give us, and the rest of the world, the best chance for peace in the Middle East in at least the last half-century. The Islamic Republic has been the sponsor of any number of terrorist groups in that region for pretty much the whole of its existence. Among it's spawn are Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis. The goal is not to "destroy Iran," but to eliminate its current government.

As to the "suffering that it would inflict on the Iranian people," the Iranian people (which are NOT the same as the Iranian government) have already suffered enormously over the past 47 years. A well-planned and well-executed war that resulted in actual regime change would benefit the Iranian people in unimaginable ways. Anything less than that would leave the citizenry exposed to even more merciless persecution by the government and would be a betrayal of their hopes, as demonstrated and the promises our government has made to them.

If the Islamic Republic should fall, the US would gain a strong ally in the region, in place of an implacable opponent.

Jan Barendrecht's avatar

The situation could be more complicated: Trump has been involved in the Epstein trafficking gang. The Mossad has all the incriminating files so full control. But during the 12 day war, Iran's IT wizards downloaded those files as well hence have full control as long as Iran is a viable country.

Anyone maneuvering him/herself in such a position of blackmail can't be called smart.

Democracy requires knowledgeable people and the major part of that knowledge regards well-being and the environmental requirements for that. It requires vigilance, social cohesion and effort. That system has been replaced with "money buys all" even if it's fiat paper.

aaron's avatar
2dEdited

according to claude ai the situation is between a hamlet and a brinkmanship game